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The Kentucky Derby: Forte the Favorite for a Reason

Angel of Empire

Angel of Empire

Louisville Courier-Journal-USA TODAY Sports

The field for the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby has seen a few changes in the past 48 hours and as a result, my outlook for the Run for the Roses has altered a bit.

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This year’s Derby favorite is Forte, who is on a 5-race win streak and was named last year’s Champion 2-year-old male. He will be tough to beat, but many of his closest competitors have been more impressive during morning workouts.

I am very curious to see how the pari-mutuel market shakes out, especially regarding the longshots. I could see novice bettors blindly wagering on all the longest shots on the board, hoping to cash in on another Rich Strike-type upset this year. If the biggest longshots attract more wagering dollars than they deserve, that creates overlay odds for pretty much every other horse in the field.

Let’s dive in!

149TH KENTUCKY DERBY

RACE 12, CHURCHILL DOWNS

SATURDAY MAY 6, POST TIME 6:57PM ET

The “buzz” horse that has been turning the most heads in the morning workouts is #14 Angel of Empire, one of 4 Derby entrants this year for Louisville native Brad Cox. I agree, his workouts have been great, and he will probably end the week as the third choice in the market with odds around 8-1. But I am not interested in betting him at that price. The field he beat in the Arkansas Derby last time out was weaker than many people realize, and his speed figures pale in comparison to the other top contenders. Sure, he is improving quickly and could win, but I think fair odds on him are closer to 12-1 or even 15-1.

(Read More: Derby Storylines)

Another one of the favorites I am fading is #5 Tapit Trice. Yes, he took a huge step forward in winning the Blue Grass last time out, and his fantastic pedigree means he is the most likely of anyone in this field to excel at this 1¼ mile distance. I am just worried about his ability to handle the 20-horse stampede that is the Kentucky Derby. He has shown in past races that he does not like running behind other horses and having dirt kicked in his face, so jockey Luis Saez has two options to make sure he stays in the clear - go extremely wide on both turns, or lag far behind the field. Neither option puts him in a good position to win the Derby. I think we will know within the first 1/2 mile whether Tapit Trice has a chance to win – if he is feeling comfortable and picking off horses one-by-one on the backstretch, it will be hard for anyone to hold him off in the stretch. But if he is fighting his jockey and spinning his wheels early, he could very well get discouraged and throw in the towel.

I could see many bettors gravitating towards the top Japanese contender, #17 Derma Sotogake, but I am also skeptical of his chances. His victory in the UAE Derby last time out was visually impressive, but horses coming out of the UAE Derby are an abysmal 0-for-18 all-time in the Kentucky Derby, with a best finish of 5th. The reasons for that poor record are debated - most agree that the travel from the Middle East to Kentucky can take a lot out of these young horses – but I am not interested in any horses exiting the UAE Derby until proven otherwise. I wish nothing but the best for his Japanese connections, and I would be thrilled for the country’s racing fans if he won, but I am not putting him on my tickets.

(Read More: Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds)

The Favorite for a Reason at the Kentucky Derby

My top pick is the favorite, #15 Forte. I know he is not the sexiest pick, but I just cannot find any major weaknesses with this colt. I really like the versatility he has shown in his running style. He has won sitting as close as two lengths off the pace, as well as sitting as far back as seven lengths off the pace. Now for some handicappers, the “knock” against Forte is that his win in the Florida Derby last time out was not as impressive as many expected. But I strongly disagree – I think the Florida Derby was a very underrated effort. The horse had already qualified for the Kentucky Derby, so it is unlikely that trainer Todd Pletcher had him at 100% fitness with the main goal, the Kentucky Derby, still 5 weeks away. He was also further back in the pack than he had ever been in his career – and he still won. I loved the fact that he never threw in the towel despite having to pass four horses in the stretch run. The Kentucky Derby is just as much a test of a horse’s mental strength as it is a test of physical strength. And since Forte’s the most seasoned horse in the field with the strongest mind, I am playing him on top in all of my wagers.

Kentucky Derby Long Shots Worth a Look

Here are some longer-priced horses to consider for the underneath slots in the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta:

  • #3 Two Phil’s: In my opinion, he ran the strongest final prep of any horse in this year’s Derby field. I know, it was on synthetic, but he has run well on dirt before so he should be able to transfer that form to this surface. I considered using him as my top pick, but I am worried that novice bettors named “Phil” will bet him to win for fun and artificially drive down his price. Regardless, he is a major contender to hit the board.
  • #7 Reincarnate: I could see him going to the lead in a race with no clear pace setter. In the three starts in which he has set the early pace, he has won twice and finished second once. That poor performance in the Arkansas Derby last time out was concerning, but he should get the trip he wants here at a more-than-fair price.
  • #22 Mandarin Hero: I was thrilled to see this Japanese horse draw in from the also-eligible list, as he deserved to be in the field from the start. His U.S. debut in the Santa Anita Derby last time out was fantastic, losing only by a nose to Practical Move, who would have been among the favorites in the Derby had he not scratched. Mandarin Hero lacks early speed, so I’m worried he might be a little too far back in the pack to compete for the win, but I’m confident he’ll outrun his odds. And the extra furlong of the Kentucky Derby definitely won’t hurt him.

Best Bets:

WIN: #15 Forte, at 7/2 or higher

EXACTA: 15 / 3, 7, 22

TRIFECTA: 15 / 3,7,22 / 3, 7, 22

SUPERFECTA: 15 / 3, 7, 22 / 3,7,22 / 3,7,22

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