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Braves (-176) at Cubs (+145): O/U 9.0
Padres (-140) at Rockies (+120): O/U 12.5
NBC’s Game Projections have two excellent value picks it likes today and two of them are regarding one of the hottest teams in baseball and the other on a clear-cut home and away squad.
As you can see below, the Braves ML and -1.5 are receiving almost all of the money and rightfully so. Atlanta has won 14 straight until they lost the past two against the Chicago Cubs, so the Braves are avoiding a three-loss sweep today.
San Diego make the trips to Colorado, where a lot of teams normally struggle. The Padres are no exception as they have lost two straight at Colorado, scoring four runs in each game. The model likes the Under 12.5 runs after the first two games of the series combined for 14 runs on Friday and 9 runs on Saturday.
The Under is 13-7 this season (65%) when Colorado is the home underdog, cashing three of the last four (75%) and seven of the past 10 (70%). The Under has cashed in four of the last six (66.6%) as a road favorite.
Atlanta is 8-1 ATS (88.8%) and 9-0 on the ML (100%) following a two-game losing streak this season. The Braves beat the Phillies 6-5 to give Atlanta its only ATS loss following two-straight ML losses. Chances are the Braves win today.
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San Diego is receiving more money on the ML than Atlanta is, despite both teams looking at 0-3 sweep this weekend.
If you think both Atlanta and San Diego will not be swept, well the model agrees with that, as well as the Under 12.5 runs at Coors Field.
Edge: Braves ML and Rockies vs Padres Under 12.5
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