Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bet in the series opener between the Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox.
Twins (-110) at Red Sox (-110): O/U 8.5
We have a new series between the Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox as Sonny Gray and Chris Sale face-off.
The Red Sox lost to the Angels yesterday at home after winning three-straight over Los Angeles. The Red Sox are 8-9 on the season and 3-5 following a loss.
This Boston team entered this season with its lowest expected win total since the 1997 season. The Red Sox are coming off a 78-84 last place finish in the AL East last year.
In Gray’s career, his teams are 3-8 when he pitches versus Boston and 2-4 at Fenway. However, this is arguably the worst Red Sox’s team since Gray begin pitching in 2014.
On the other hand, Sale has eight or more strikeouts in his past five meetings versus the Twins but only one of those starts have come since 2018 (in 2021).
Sale has a 11.25 ERA and .327 OBA in his three starts this season, along with 18 hits allowed, 16 runs (15 earned) and 19 strikeouts to seven walks over 12.0 innings. Sale has not looked good at all and his only quality start came against the 5-9 Detroit Tigers.
Taking out the Tigers matchup, Sale has pitched 7.0 innings in his two other starts and allowed 13 runs (12 earned), 14 hits and four home runs. Minnesota only has 87 at-bats versus LHP this season with 27 strikeouts to five walks and a .218 BA.
Those stats are not ideal numbers, but Sale is an ideal matchup if you are facing a LHP. The other two starting LHP that the Twins have faced were Nestor Cortes (Twins won 4-3) and Jesús Luzardo (Twins lost 5-2) this season.
Minnesota has lost two-straight games three different times this year and bounced back with 3-2 and 4-3 wins in the following games. I expect that to happen a third time.
I grabbed the Twins ML at -110 odds and lean the price on the Twins -1.5 at +150 odds.
Pick: Twins ML (Risk 1u)
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