Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet for the Philadelphia Phillies visiting the Houston Astros.
Phillies (+125) at Astros (-145): O/U 7.5
Philadelphia enters with five wins in the past six games, but now goes on the road to take on Houston who is catching their stride and coming off a rest day.
Houston’s won six of the past seven games seven of the previous nine games at home and on the road against the Blue Jays, Braves and Rays. Philadelphia hosted Seattle and Colorado over their last six games, so Houston has been playing quality opponents and getting quality results.
It’s Aaron Nola versus Framber Valdez. Nola has two career starts against Houston and has yet to allow an earned run over 12.2 innings.
However, Nola’s struggled this season with at least two earned runs in every start. He owns 17 earned runs over 28.1 innings (5 starts), along with a 5.40 ERA and .271 OBA in 2023.
On the other side, Valdez has been excellent at home with a 1.50 ERA but sports a 0-2 record against the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. Valdez permitted three earned runs in those three starts, but because of defense, eight runs came across but only three charged to him.
Over 70 plate appearances, the Phillies’ current hitters own a 35.7 K% and .161 BA against Valdez, so not good whatsoever. Over the past five games, Philly has 37 strikeouts to 9 walks and Valdez has seven-plus Ks in three of his past four games.
I expect positive regression to hit Houston tonight with Valdez on the mound. I played the Astros on the ML at -145 odds and would go to -160 for risking 1 unit.
Mattress Mack is also throwing out the first pitch, so get excited Astros’ fans.
Pick: Astros ML (Risk 1u)
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