Vaughn Dalzell shares his best on Patrick Corbin‘s walk prop in the Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals series.
Patrick Corbin O/U 1.5 Walks vs. Astros
Happy Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate!
One of the best pitchers to fade is on the mound tonight and I like value on his walks prop! Not his strikeouts or outs (kinda), but his walks.
Looking over the data, Houston has fared well against LHP all season. At home, eight out of 11 (72.7%) starting LHP to face Houston walked at least two hitters. On the season and anywhere, LHP walked two or more 12 out of 17 games (70.5%) against the Astros and three-straight.
Corbin has done very well with walks this year because he’s either allowing a hit, fly out or a strikeout, but on the road it’s a bit different.
The Nats’ pitcher has walked 13 hitters in five road games (2.6 walks per game) compared to six batters over eight home games (0.75 walks per game) this season.
When Corbin pitches on five or six days of rest, which he is here, the veteran walks at least one hitter per game and the same goes for night games (2.0 walks per game) this season.
Houston is hitting .260 versus LHP (12th) and ranks top 15 in OBP, OPS, SLG, walks, strikeouts and RBIs.
Before walking only one hitter against the Diamondbacks at home (11 hits allowed), Corbin walked four batters each versus the Dodgers and Royals, both on the road.
I played Corbin Over 1.5 Walks at -135 odds and would go out to -150 for risking 1 unit. Corbin’s command has been an issue on the road, so I will ride his Over 1.5 Walks in hopes he goes Over in three-consecutive road games.
I would pivot to either Corbin Under 17.5 Outs (-140) or the Astros -1.5 (-125) as alternative options and leans on this game.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Over 1.5 Walks (Risk 1u)
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