Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why fading Javier Baez on his strikeout prop is the best play in the Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers matchup.
Javier Baez O/U 1.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves
This game was postponed on Tuesday, so this prop is for Game 1 of the double-header on Wednesday starting at 1:10 PM ET.
The Tigers earned their first win of June on Monday defeating the Braves and Javier Baez played a part in that, but it is back to fading him here.
Over the month of June, Baez is hitting .220 with 16 strikeouts to 1 walk over 41 at-bats and 10 games.
Baez struck out twice on Monday and three times in the game prior, which feeds into his 1.6 strikeouts per game and 39% strikeout percentage this month.
Today, Spencer Strider takes the mound for Atlanta, the MLB’s leader in strikeouts (121). Baez only faced Strider once, so the two are not formal, but this isn’t ideal timing for Baez.
Detroit’s strikeout king (Baez) is on pace to shatter his 20 strikeouts over 110 at-bats in May (26 games). Baez has 16 strikeouts in 10 games in June compared to 20 Ks in 26 games in May. He had four games of two or more strikeouts in those 26 May games, in June, Baez has five games of two or more Ks already.
Baez struck out at least once in 19 of his last 21 games (90.4%) and struck out two or more times seven times (33.3%) during that span. However, Baez is 5-5 (50%) this month to the Over 1.5 Ks and this is arguably the most challenging pitching matchup.
Now that this is a day game, Baez is hitting .202 during the day with more strikeouts in fewer at-bats (29 Ks in 114 AB) compared to .244 at night (27 Ks in 127 AB).
Strider has 17 strikeouts and a .200 OBA over 11.0 innings in two day starts this season. Strider should get Baez at least once and the bullpen will be in play too.
Give me Baez Over 1.5 Strikeouts at -105 odds on DraftKings and would go out to -125.
Pick: Javier Baez Over 1.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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