Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet Aaron Nola‘s strikeout prop in the series opener between the Philadelphia Phillies and Detroit Tigers.
Aaron Nola O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Tigers
The Phillies host the Tigers to open a three-game series with Philadelphia listed as a heavy -240 favorite.
The pitching matchup is Aaron Nola versus Joey Wentz and I’ll focus on Nola against this Tigers’ offense.
Detroit is hitting .190 over the last seven days, which is the seventh-most during that span (six games). The Tigers are 1-5 in those six games, scoring three or fewer runs in five outings, plus Detroit is currently riding a three-game losing streak.
Against starting pitchers, Detroit has struck out six or more times in four-straight games against Michael Kopech (9 Ks), Dylan Cease (6 Ks), Mike Clevinger (6 Ks) and Dane Dunning (6 Ks).
Nola only has four home starts this season and went Over 6.5 Ks one time, but this is a good spot. Nola has 25 strikeouts to six walks in 25.2 innings at home, along with a 3.86 ERA and .237 OBA.
In his career, Nola has three starts against Detroit and owns a 1.93 ERA with 19 strikeouts over 18.2 innings. Nola hit six, six and seven strikeouts in those three games. This could be close, but I like the upside for Nola to hit seven or more strikeouts here.
Nola posted a season-high 10 strikeouts in his previous home game against the Cubs and recorded seven and five on the road versus the Braves and Mets in the next two starts.
I played Nola Over 6.5 Ks at -125 odds and would go out to -140 for seven-plus Ks. Nola for six-plus strikeouts and the Phillies ML in a same game parlay is a lean for an alternative play.
Pick: Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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