Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bet, a hitting prop on rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz in the Reds versus Dodgers series finale.
Elly De La Cruz O/U 1.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers
Elly De La Cruz launched a 458-foot homer yesterday, the first of his young MLB career and the very next day, the 20-year-old will face the legend Clayton Kershaw.
With the weather being such a factor in the past two games of this series, we can expect both teams to be swinging for the fences. In the previous two games between the Reds and Dodgers, Los Angeles used all RHP versus De La Cruz, so this will be the first LHP he sees in the MLB -- not ideal.
In the minors last season, De La Cruz struck out 29.7% versus LHP in AA, 33.6% against LHP in AAA. De La Cruz struck out 29.6% of the time to LHP in AAA this season.
Through two MLB games, De La Cruz totaled three strikeouts over nine plate appearances in two MLB games. He has three hits, three runs and two walks as well, so he’s been quite effective, but again, all nine plate appearances came against RHP.
De La Cruz to walk is -310 to the no, so we should expect either hits, fly outs or strikeouts from the rookie here.
The Under 1.5 Hits + RBIs and + Runs was a lean of mine (-140), as well as Under 0.5 hits (+130), but I opted for the Over 1.5 strikeouts at +140 on DraftKings.
I expect Kershaw to get De La Cruz at least once and the relief pitchers could tag the rookie as well after two days of watching him hit. De La Cruz is a switch hitter, so he will likely be batting Righty today after going Lefty the past two games. Kershaw has 87th ranked percentiles or better in K%, whiff%, walk% and chase rate.
I would go down to +110 on the Over 1.5 strikeouts for De La Cruz against Kershaw and the Dodgers’ pitching staff.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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