Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the New York Yankees and Cincinnati Reds matchup on Peacock and how he’s betting Hunter Greene‘s strikeout prop.
Hunter Greene O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs.Yankees
Rather than breaking down the game, which will take place on Peacock, I like the matchup for the Reds’ starting pitcher Hunter Greene has going against the Yankees’ offense.
New York has scored at least four runs in eight of the last nine games, but they’ve been strikeout prone lately.
New York is hitting .247 over the last seven games and seven days (19th) with the most strikeouts in the league over that span (71).
In four of the past five games, Ben Lively (8), José Berríos (8), Chris Bassitt (7) and Kevin Gausman (10) recorded seven or more strikeouts against the Yankees. New York was the road team in all five of those games and again here.
In Greene’s last two home games, the 23-year-old flamethrower went 5.1 and 5.2 innings with 13 total hits allowed to 11 strikeouts against the White Sox and Mets. He was shelled in his previous start, which came on the road in Colorado (I was on the Rockies ML), so this is a bounce back performance for Greene.
Greene recorded seven or more strikeouts in five out of nine starts (55.5%) and six or more Ks in nine games (66.6%). The Yankees have never faced Greene outside of two plate appearances and no hits from Harrison Bader, so Greene has a lot working for him.
With first pitch being at 11:36 AM ET, hitters could be sleepy when facing Greene’s 100 MPH fastball. Greene ranks in the 84th and 87th percentiles for K% and whiff%, plus 70th percentile for chase rate and 98th for fastball velocity, per baseball savant.
I played Greene’s Over 6.5 strikeouts at -112 odds on FanDuel and would go out to -140 odds on DraftKings.
Pick: Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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