Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in the Seattle Mariners versus Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, including a strikeout prop on Marcos Gonzales.
Marco Gonzales O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners meet up for rubber match during the day with Marco Gonzales as the primary focus.
Gonzales ranks in the bottom 10th and 14th percentiles of K% and whiff% this season, while not getting much velocity or spin, per baseball savant.
In 16 career plate appearances, five different Pirates’ hitters own a .375 BA and 18.7 K%, including hits from four different players. Gonzales started against Pittsburgh once in his career and went 7.0 innings with six hits allowed and four strikeouts during a 6-0 win (2019).
In his last five starts this season, Gonzales permitted 20 earned runs on 32 hits over 22.2 innings of work. He owns a 7.94 ERA during that five-game span, along with a .333 OBA and 13 strikeouts to 8 walks.
The Pirates are hitting lefty’s at .272 on the season (9th) and rank top 11 in SLG, OBP and OPS, plus coming in with the 10th-fewest strikeouts and 9th-most walks.
The Buccos shouldn’t have many problems with Gonzales today and the fact that it’s a day game (7.17 ERA) and the Pirates will likely load up the lineup with RHB (.309 OBA vs RHB).
Starting LHP are 7-6 to the Over 4.5 Ks (53.8%) versus the Pirates in 2023, but they are 6-3 to the Under (66.6%) in the past nine instances. Gonzales is 7-2 to the Under 4.5 Ks this season (77.7%) and 6-0 to the Under in his last six starts (100%).
I played Gonzales Under 4.5 Strikeouts at -120 odds and would risk 1 unit out to -140. Keep fading him.
Pick: Marco Gonzales Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Start off your Sunday with MLB Sunday leadoff on Peacock featuring exclusive games with no blackout restrictions. Check out the schedule now to see if your favorite team is playing and join for one low annual fee.
DON’T FORGET TO CHECK OUT OUR BETTING TOOLS:
Live Odds: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL Player Props: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB| CBB | NHL
Top Trends: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL Predictions: NFL | NBA | MLB | CFB | CBB | NHL
