Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet, a strikeout prop on Griffin Canning, in the Los Angeles Angels versus Chicago White Sox series.
Griffin Canning O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox
The Angels open this series with the White Sox by throwing Griffin Canning on the mound for his 8th start of the season and fourth on the road.
Griffin’s coming off his best start of the season with 7.0 innings and two hits allowed versus Boston. Griffin struck out five and walked three in that 4-0 win.
On the road this season, Canning has gone 3-0 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts facing the Orioles, Cardinals and Yankees -- three good offenses.
Canning has a 5.74 ERA and .302 OBA, which I think will regress to better numbers. Canning has gone 5.0 or 5.1 innings in all three road starts, which should continue here (his outs prop is 16.5).
Chicago isn’t quite as good as those three offenses Canning’s faced on the road, plus the White Sox are striking out the 8th-most over the last seven days (53 Ks in six games) with the sixth-lowest batting average (.218).
Canning has a chase rate in the 60th percentile and he’s been trending in the right direction over his last two starts against the Orioles and Red Sox.
Only four players from the White Sox have faced Canning in their careers, so he should be able to get a few new guys to strikeout and a few old ones.
I played Canning Over 4.5 Strikeouts at -130 odds, which is available on FanDuel and BetMGM. I like the Over 5.5 Strikeouts at +150 on DraftKings for a 0.5 unit or less. I wouldn’t talk anyone off his Over 16.5 outs either.
Canning’s only gone Over 5.5 Ks once this season, so it’s interesting DK is throwing that out with a -210 tag on the Under. Fishy, but gives me more confidence Canning can hit five or more Ks.
Pick: Griffin Canning Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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