Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bet in the Baltimore Orioles versus Kansas City Royals series.
Orioles (-150) at Royals (+135): O/U 9.0
The Orioles extended their Game 1’s to an impress 10-0 last night and look to go up 2-0 against the Royals in the second of a three-game series.
Zack Greinke and Kyle Gibson get the nods for their respective teams and just like prior games, we are fading Greinke and the Royals when the 39-year-old is on the mound.
Gibson has a 50% ground ball rate at 35-years-old, along with a 4-0 record and 3.93 ERA over six starts, so the Royals’ lineup should struggle more than the Orioles’ who faces Greinke.
In Greinke’s career against Baltimore, he owns a 3-2 record with a 4.65 ERA in 12 games and 10 starts. Against current Orioles’, Greinke owns a .340 OBA and 13 K% over 54 plate appearances and nine different hitters.
Greinke is 0-4 on the season with a 6.10 ERA and 39 hits allowed over 31.0 innings (six games). Greinke is a contact pitcher now and that is a problem against the O’s lineup.
Baltimore is 5-1 in the last six games with 39 runs scored (T-3rd), a .305 batting average (2nd) and eight home runs (T-7th) during that span.
Kansas City is 1-5 in Greinke’s starts and needed 11 runs in that win compared to Baltimore who is 5-1 in Gibson’s starts, losing in extra innings at the Chicago White Sox. Plus, Baltimore is 11-5 on the road this year and Kansas City is 1-13 at home.
I grabbed Baltimore on the ML a -150 odds and would go to -160 for risking 1 unit.
Pick: Orioles ML (Risk 1u)
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