Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best in Game 2 of the series between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees.
Yankees (+144) at Rays (-172): O/U 7.5
We cashed the Rays yesterday as they survived a late rally from the Yankees in the 5-4 victory on Friday.
Domingo Germán takes the mound against Drew Rasmussen. I faded German in his previous game, which was a masterclass performance until the ninth inning where he failed to record a complete game.
Current Rays’ hitters have 70 plate appearances against German in his career and a 20 K%, plus .266 OBA. Since 2018, German has 9 starts and 11 games played against Tampa Bay with a 5.64 ERA and 3-2 record.
Rasmussen faced the Yankees once last season and recorded 10 strikeouts and no walks or earned runs over 6.1 innings in a 4-2 win at Yankee Stadium.
Rasmussen only has two home starts this year and while his numbers aren’t fantastic over the last four overall starts, the 27-year-old RHP posted excellent home numbers last year (2.24 ERA, .181 OBA) and in May (3.45 ERA, .224 OBA).
I like the pitching edge for Tampa Bay and the batters for the Rays are far more explosive. New York threw out their best possible lineup yesterday and all their runs came in one inning. Plus, the last time German visited Tampa Bay, the Rays won 9-0.
Give me Tampa Bay on the ML at -172 odds and I will risk 1.5 unit again.
Pick: Rays ML (Risk 1.5u)
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