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Tigers (+160) at Red Sox (-196): O/U 9.5
Royals (+165) at Angels (-200): O/U 9.0
NBC’s Game Projections have two excellent value picks it likes today with one on the ML and the other on a total.
Boston will host Detroit in what could be a lopsided outcome. The Red Sox have won 13 of the last 17 games (76.4%) entering this contest, while the Tigers broke a six-game losing streak with two-straight wins over the Rangers.
Detroit is 3-7 ATS and on the ML (30%) following a two-game winning streak, losing five of the last six chances at attempting a three-game winning streak. The Tigers do not make many chances trips to Boston and when they have since 2018, Detroit is 4-6 ATS and on the ML, losing four of the last five at Fenway.
The other game on the NBC model’s radar is the Royals at Angels. Our model predicts a low-scoring outcome between the two teams.
The Angels are coming off a five-game series versus the Mariners and all five games totaled nine or fewer runs with Los Angeles averaging just over three runs per game. Los Angeles averages the seventh-fewest runs per game in the last 15 days and a .209 batting average (26th).
The Royals are not doing much better in that span with a .239 batting average (21st) and 48 runs scored (21st). Six consecutive games for the Royals have gone Under 9.0 runs and they have averaged less than three runs per game.
If you think the Red Sox beat the Tigers today and the Angels versus Royals is a low-scoring outcome, well the model agrees with ya and would not talk you out of it.
Edges: Red Sox ML and Royals vs Angels Under 9
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