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MLB K Props, April 15: Fading Gonzalez, Rodon, Skubal, Lyles, Pivetta

Marco Gonzales

Marco Gonzales

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

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Marco Gonzalez O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros

Marco Gonzalez only lasted 2.0 innings in his first start of 2022.

He allowed six hits and three home runs with two walks and one strikeout. He threw 61 pitches against the Twins.

His next matchup will not be any easier. Per his stat cast on baseball savant, Gonzalez has a 9.6 K% and 13.3 whiff% over 156 plate appearances and nine different hitters.

Gonzalez has 15 strikeouts to nine walks and a .363 OBA against Houston.

Gonzalez vs Houston

Gonzalez vs Houston

This Houston lineup is tough and should give Gonzalez fits as the Astros have at least fits hit off him in nine-straight meetings. Gonzalez has 3, 3, 6 and 8 strikeouts in his four career meetings with Houston in Seattle. I like him to be closer to three than he is six.

Let’s ride Gonzalez Under 3.5 strikeouts (+110) out to -140 odds.

Pick: Marco Gonzalez Under 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros (1u)

Carlos Rodon O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Guardians

This line is high for Carlos Rodon, even after recording 12 strikeouts at home versus the Miami Marlins.

Rodon has recorded 8, 8 and 7 Ks in the last three meetings with Cleveland, so this line is sharp. However, Cleveland ranks 1st in the MLB for batting average (.308), OBP (.383), SLG (.548) and OPS (.907). Miami ranks 25th or worse in all four categories.

The Guardians own 49 strikeouts (25th) and 23 walks (11th) through six games, impressive marks. No starting pitcher has recorded more than five Ks versus Cleveland yet and they best pitcher they faced, Tyler Mahle totaled four strikeouts over 4.0 innings. No pitcher made it past 4.1 innings over the last four games versus Cleveland.

Rodon is 8-2 to the Under 7.5 strikeouts in his past 10 games at 5.0 or fewer innings, including the postseason. He went Over this in his last game at 5.0 innings, but like I said, Miami and Cleveland are on different planets hitting right now.

Let’s take Rodon at Under 7.5 strikeouts (-148) out to -160. I would play Under 6.5 Ks for 1 unit too.

Pick: Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (1u)

Jordan Lyles O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Yankees

Jordan Lyles will make his second career start against the Yankees and look to bounce back after being destroyed by the Rays.

In Lyles’ opening start, he went 5.0 innings for 83 pitches but allowed seven hits, five earned runs and one homer with three walks and two strikeouts. Lyles also has stellar hit rates when he does not go past 5.1 innings.

Last year, Lyles was 10-2 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts (83.3%) when he did not surpass 5.1 innings as a starter.

Per baseball savant, Lyles does not have much experience nor success against the Yankees. Lyles has one start and one appearance for 8.2 total innings versus New York. Against current hitters, the Yankees own a .314 OBA, .471 SLG and 16 hits in 63 plate appearances with nine strikeouts to seven walks.

Lyles owns a 14.3 K% versus current Yankees hitters and a 18.8 whiff%. He allowed six hits and had six strikeouts to one walk and one earned run over 6.0 innings in his only start versus New York.

Jordan Lyles

Jordan Lyles

I think Lyles will get hit around tonight and could have a short night. So far, a few RHP like Tanner Houck (3 Ks), Nick Pivetta (4 Ks) and Jose Berrios (5 Ks) all hovered around this number against the Yankees.

Alek Manoah, Nathan Eovaldi and Kevin Gausman went over this 4.5 K total versus the Yankees, which makes sense. I expect Lyles to join that first group with Houck and Pivetta.

Lyles is the worst pitcher that New York has faced thus far. I played Under 4.5 strikeouts at -146 odds and would play this out to -160. I would pass on the 3.5 number against New York.

Pick: Jordan Lyles Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

Tarik Skubal O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Royals

We will run it back and fade another starting pitcher against the Royals.

Kansas City has the second-fewest strikeouts in the MLB with 34 through six games to 15 walks.

Per statmuse, no starting pitcher has recorded more than four Ks versus Kansas City, not even Shane Bieber.

SP vs KC

SP vs KC

Skubal faced the Royals four times last season and recorded 1, 4, 7 and 3 strikeouts, so he hit the Under three out of four times. In the seven-strikeout game, Skubal went 6.0 innings, so we should not expect that.

Skubal had three Ks in 4.0 innings against the White Sox in his opening start. He surrendered seven hits, five runs, four earned runs and one walk over 79 pitches. This will be another tough start versus a familiar opponent.

I played Under 4.5 strikeouts at -110 odds snd would take Skubal out to -150 for 1u.

Pick: Tarik Skubal Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

Vladimir Gutierrez O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers

Vladimir Gutierrez tossed his four-seam fastball 51.9% in his opening start (39/76), so we know he will rely on that versus the patient and talented Dodgers lineup.

Gutierrez has only faced Freddie Freeman (6 PA) and Hanser Alberto (3), with the two combing for one strikeout, three hits and two doubles.

His first start of the year came in Atlanta. Gutierrez lasted 4.1 innings and finished with six hits allowed, two earned runs, two walks and four strikeouts over 76 pitches.

Gutierrez is 8-6 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts on the road in his career (57.1%). When he does not surpass 5.0 innings away from home, Vlad is 6-1 to the Under 4.5 Ks (85.7%). On the road, he averaged 0.70 Ks per inning compared to 0.86 at home last season.

Vlad has one West Coast start in his career (San Diego). The farthest starts outside of that were Kansas City and St. Louis, so there is no telling how he will adjust to the nightcap in Los Angeles.

I played Gutierrez Under 3.5 strikeouts (+104) and would play this out to -140.

Pick: Vladimir Gutierrez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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