MLB K Props, April 21: Zack Greinke, DeScalfani and Gonzalez Unders
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Zack Greinke O/U 3.5 STRIKEOUTS VS. TWINS
We run it back on Zack Greinke versus the Twins.
Greinke ranks in the 5th percentile for whiff% and 1% for K%, per baseball savant. He has one strikeout and two walks in 11.0 innings and 169 pitches (two starts). A lot of blue on this graphic below (not good).
Greinke pitched 6.0 innings of six-hit baseball against the Twins last season with the Astros. Greinke surrendered three earned runs, walked one and struck out three. However, Greinke struck out Miguel Sano twice and Brent Rooker once for those three Ks.
Against current Minnesota hitters, Greinke has 66 plate appearances, a 16.7 K%, and a .242 OBA. Outside of Byron Buxton (day-to-day) and Miguel Sano, there is not much success for Greinke looking over the lineup.
Let’s fade the 38-year-old RHP Under 3.5 strikeouts (-154) out to -165. So far, Nick Pivetta (2), Chris Flexen (3) and Carlos Hernandez (0) are a few RHP that recorded three or fewer Ks versus Minnesota this season.
Pick: Zack Greinke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Anthony DeSclafani O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Mets
The Mets have held nine out of 13 starting pitchers Under 4.5 strikeouts (69.2%) and all 13 at 5.0 or fewer innings this season.
New York has held seven out of 10 RHP overall this year Under 4.5 strikeouts (70%), per statmuse.
The Mets also held five straight starting pitchers Under 4.5 strikeouts before Carlos Rodon (LHP) lit them up for eight strikeouts yesterday. Those five starting pitchers that finished Under 4.5 Ks were all RHP too.
Insert Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), who recorded nine strikeouts over 8.1 innings of work (two starts). DeSclafani posted four strikeouts against Cleveland and five versus Miami with two earned runs in each, plus 13 total hits.
DeSclafani only met the Mets once since 2019 and recorded 1.1 innings in 2021 after leaving with ankle discomfort. While he has seven, eight and seven strikeouts in those three 2019 meetings as a member of the Reds, that was a long time ago.
On the season, DeSclafani has a .365 OBA thus far, 4.32 ERA, and in the first time through the order, he has allowed a .438 OBA this season.
Dating back to 2020, DeSclafani is 8-6 to the Under 4.5 Ks on the road at 6.0 or fewer innings. When he pitches 5.0 or less, he was 5-4 to the Under.
I have him at 4.0 strikeouts through 5.0 innings, meaning he needs six innings to go for five-plus Ks, so let’s fade DeSclafani.
This opened at -110 and I grabbed it at -135 odds. I would DeSclafani out to Under 4.5 strikeouts for -160 odds.
Pick: Anthony DeSclafani Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Marco Gonzalez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rangers
Marco Gonzalez has 16 starts against the Rangers in his career dating back to 2017. He has recorded four or less strikeouts in 11 of those outings (68.7%), including eight of the last 10 meetings (80%)
Texas has 139 plate appearances versus Gonzalez for 32 hits, 25 strikeouts, eight walks and five home runs. Gonzalez has a .252 OBA versus the Rangers hitters and an 18.0 K% and 18.9 whiff%, per baseball savant. That is a lot of familiarities.
Gonzalez struck out six versus Houston in his last start after a one-K performance against Minnesota over 2.0 innings. While he bounced back in his last start versus Houston, the Astros lost 11-1 in that game, so of course, Gonzalez got a few extra punch-outs.
Through the order for the first time, Gonzalez averages a .353 OBA with a 1.095 OPS this season. The Rangers could get after Gonzalez in the first two innings and I expect him to go 5.0 innings or fewer.
Seven out of 11 starting pitchers hit four or less strikeouts versus the Rangers this season (63.6%) and eight of them went 5.0 or fewer innings pitched (72.7%).
Let’s fade Gonzalez Under 4.5 Ks (-120) out to -160 odds versus the Rangers.
Pick: Marco Gonzalez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
#MLB K Prop ⚾️— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) April 21, 2022
Pablo Lopez vs Cardinals
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145) DK
6 of 7 RHP U 5.5 vs STL
8 of 10 SP U 5.5 vs STL
Owns .400 OBA vs RHB so far
Cards avg 6.8 Ks per game
Cards have a plethora of RHB and are hitting the change up well#STLcards #MakeItMiami#PlayerProps pic.twitter.com/owuvIZQaQX
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