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Merrill Kelly O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers
Merrill Kelly will meet a familiar foe and his toughest test of the early season when the L.A. Dodgers visit town tonight.
Kelly has 122 plate appearances against the current Dodgers roster and plenty against the better hitters on this team. Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner and Will Smith have all faced Kelly at least a dozen times, per baseball savant.
In five out of seven career meetings versus the Dodgers, Kelly has stayed Under 4.5 strikeouts, including two of the past three meetings where he posted one, six and three strikeouts with five walks to 22 hits.
Kelly opened the season with three straight Overs, hitting versus San Diego, Houston and Washington. However, he has only allowed one earned run on the year, which is likely to change versus Los Angeles.
Kelly has allowed at least three earned runs in six out of seven career meetings versus the Dodgers, including seven combined in the past two games.
I expect the Dodgers to get after Kelly and give him his first Under of the season. I played this at -140 odds and would play out to -160.
Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Kyle Freeland O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Phillies
Well, today is a major bounce back day for the Phillies bats. They struck out 13 times to Eric Lauer yesterday, which was mind-boggling to me and a lot of others.
Kyle Freeland enters as someone who has struggled against the Phillies in his career and he is making his first road start way from Coors Field in 2022. Freeland has three starts this season, but all in Colorado.
He just faced this Phillies team in his last start and recorded three strikeouts, one walk and two earned runs on six hits in 5.0 innings (87 pitches). Now, Freeland will attempt to recreate more success on the road versus Philly? I doubt it.
Per statmuse, Freeland has five career starts against Philly and recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four out of five games. Freeland walked eight in the past three meetings and nine earned runs.
When he was in Philly, Freeland had five combined strikeouts, seven walks, seven earned runs, and nine hits allowed in two starts (7.2 innings).
Going over numbers against current hitters, Freeland has 77 plate appearances with a 16.9 K% and .239 OBA. Guys like Jean Segura and Bryce Harper have faced Freeland 35 combined times and struck out five.
I grabbed Freeland at Under 4.5 Ks at -152 odds. I would play out to -160 before playing Under 3.5 Ks for +110 or better and at a half-unit.
Pick: Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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