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Zach Eflin O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies
We are back on Zach Eflin. We lost our last time on him by the hook in Colorado after he returned for the sixth inning with 82 pitches, seven hits and four runs allowed. Why?!
Eflin managed two strikeouts in the first inning and three Ks in his first four outs (it took seven hitters). The Rockies scored two runs in the first inning, and we know Colorado has done well versus RHP.
Colorado is hitting RHP at .251 on the season (6th) and top 10 in OBP, SLG and OPS. The Rockies faced nine RHP this year, and only Walker Buehler (5) and Eflin (5) managed to go Over 4.5 strikeouts (22.2%), per statmuse.
Eflin needed those extra two outs (5.2 IP) and Buehler lasted 5.0 innings.
Overall, when Colorado is on the road, they have faced two RHP and both went Under 4.5 Ks. The Rockies matched up with six overall starting pitchers on the road and only Tarik Skubal (6) and Taylor Hearn (6) managed more than four strikeouts.
The Rockies are hitting .234 on the road as a team (11th) and have 49 strikeouts in over 200 at-bats. Last season, Colorado was last at .217 and had the 11th-most strikeouts. They are bottom-10 so far in Ks.
Let’s fade Eflin once again at -105 odds and play this out to -150.
Pick: Zach Eflin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Daniel Lynch O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox
Let’s roll with an Under on a Lefty versus the White Sox!
The White Sox are hitting LHP at .290 (2nd), right behind the Rockies (.291). Chicago ranks top 10 in SLG, OBP and OPS versus LHP with 27 hits, 22 strikeouts and eight walks in 93 at-bats.
Against starting LHP, Chicago held Robbie Ray, Tarik Skubal and Eduardo Rodriguez all Under 4.5 strikeouts, per statmuse. Only Ray made out past 4.0 innings versus the White Sox out of that bunch.
Overall, 12 out of 15 starting pitchers have stayed Under 4.5 strikeouts against Chicago this season (80%).
Lynch has faced Chicago three times in his career and had zero, seven and three Ks over 8.1 innings, per statmuse. Had also allowed 15 earned runs in those three games with 14 coming in two starts.
Lynch has a .577 OBA versus current White Sox hitters in 34 plate appearances in those three career meetings, per baseball savant.
Lynch allowed 15 hits, four homers, four strikeouts and four walks in those 34 appearances for nine Chicago batters.
Lynch has only made it out of the third inning once against the White Sox in his young career and Chicago is back at it pounding LHP. He ranks in the 36th percentile for K% and 44th for chase %.
The Royals youngster mixes in a few pitches but mainly focuses on the four-seam fastball (43.8%) and slider (40.7%), which make up nearly 85% of his pitches.
I grabbed Lynch Under 4.5 strikeouts at -136 odds and would play this out to -160 and a half-unit on Under 3.5 Ks for +125 or better.
Pick: Daniel Lynch Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Chris Bassitt O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
Chris Bassitt will make the second start of his career versus the Cardinals and first road game since opening at Washington versus the Nationals.
Bassitt had slightly different numbers as a road pitcher last season despite being a dominant 8-1 over 16 starts.
Bassitt owned a 3.71 ERA on the road with 1.03 Ks per inning, while those numbers were 2.44 ERA and 0.98 Ks per inning at home.
Per baseball savant, you can see below that Bassitt has minimal experience versus the Cardinals with 20 plate appearances but an abysmal eight hits allowed with two doubles, one home run, no strikeouts, one walk and a .421 batting average between five St. Louis hitters.
The Cardinals have been one of the best strikeout teams all season and recorded 39 in five home games, so barely eight Ks per home game as a team so far. Bassitt will have his work cut out for him.
This prop will come down to an important matchup. So far, Bassitt has a .038 OBA versus RHB (26 AB) compared to .308 against LHB (39 AB).
The Cardinals are hitting .241 as a team when batting Righty (13th), plus their lineup will feature mostly all RHB, maybe one (Corey Dickerson) with two switch hitters (Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson).
Last year, Bassitt allowed RHB a .236 OBA and LHB .196, and with him being an RHP, I expect regression on his .038 OBA this season, starting now.
I played Bassitt Under 5.5 strikeouts at -130 odds. I would play this out to -160.
Pick: Chris Bassitt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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