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Sean Manaea O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies
Sean Manaea has two career starts versus the Rockies with both coming in Colorado.
Manaea recorded five and seven strikeouts, but those outings came in 2018 and 2020 with the Oakland A’s.
In those two outings, Manaea surrendered seven and nine hits with three earned runs apiece, so the altitude definitely effected him and has to opposing starting pitching and LHP all season.
The last seven of nine starting pitchers have gone Under 4.5 strikeouts at Coors Field (77.7%) and eight of the previous 10 LHP (80%), per statmuse. Only one pitcher has recorded a win at Coors Field all season, which I thought was interesting.
There have only been 16 starting LHP at Coors Field this season and all 16 hit five or fewer strikeouts. Out of the 16, 13 of them stayed Under 4.5 Ks (81.2%), so I like the value here. The graph below is in order of most Ks to least at Coors Field.
Manaea struggled in his last outing going 3.1 innings with 71 pitches at home versus the Mariners. The Padres pitcher walked four and struck out three in addition to eight hits and four earned runs.
Now, he will make the trip to dreaded Coors Field. Let’s fade him.
I played the Padres pitcher Under 4.5 strikeouts at -118 odds and would play this out to -140.
Pick: Sean Manaea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Padres (-155) at Rockies (+130): O/U 12.0
Going off the Manaea cap, the Rockies have a nice matchup at home, where they hit better, and against a LHP, which they hit better.
The Rockies are hitting .280 at home (1st) with the 10th-fewest strikeouts (324) compared to hitting .233 on the road (22nd) with the 6th-fewest Ks this season (344). Colorado is also hitting .286 versus LHP (2nd), only trailing the Chicago White Sox.
Colorado has the most hits off LHP (273), the second-most doubles (57), the most triples (10), the 17th-most homers (24), plus top five ranks in BA, OBP, OPS and SLG.
In both Manaea’s starts at Colorado for his career, he allowed three earned runs each with seven and nine hits. Per baseball savant, Manaea has a 12.5 K%, .341 OBA and .636 SLG in 48 plate appearances versus current Rockies hitters.
I grabbed the Rockies First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs at -130 odds. I like the chances they get to Manaea, like they do most of their opposing LHP at home.
Pick: Rockies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (1u)
Merrill Kelly O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Giants
Merrill Kelly has four career starts at San Francisco and he’s recorded four or fewer strikeouts in all four on 5.0 innings or less. Three of those four road starts came in 2021, so still fresh enough.
Kelly faced the Giants once this season, at home a few days ago, and recorded six strikeouts in 6.1 innings pitched with three walks and two earned runs.
Despite that, we will ride his Under here because he is a big home-and-away splits guy when it comes to strikeouts.
This season, Kelly has 57 strikeouts in 59.1 innings at home (0.96 Ks per inning) compared to 23 Ks in 38.0 innings on the road (0.60 Ks per inning). That’s a big difference despite posting similar ERA’s and a much better OBA on the road (.207 vs .254).
Kelly just gets his outs via ground balls and fly outs more often than strikeouts when pitching away from Arizona, so let’s fade him on his K Prop. Kelly owns a 14.8 K% versus the Giants and a .242 OBA in 135 plate appearances, so they have seen him plenty.
I played Kelly Under 4.5 strikeouts at -125 odds. I would play this out to -140.
Kelly is 5-2 to the Under 4.5 Ks away from home this season (71.4%).
Pick: Merrill Kelly Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Trevor Rogers O/U 4.5 Hits Allowed vs Pirates
Trevor Rogers will make his second career starts versus the Pirates and since June, Pittsburgh has gotten hits off LHP.
Per statmuse, seven of the last nine starting LHP went Over 4.5 hits allowed versus Pittsburgh (77.7%) and 10-4 to the Over since June (71.4%). Rogers allowed four hits in his only start versus the Pirates over 6.0 innings with five strikeouts and two walks in 2021.
Rogers is 10-6 to the Over 4.5 hits allowed this season (62.5%) and 5-2 in the last seven (71.4%).
However, Rogers held the Nationals and Angels to four and two hits in his past two starts, so that is why we are getting plus-money for this.
At home, Rogers is 5-2 to the Over 4.5 hits allowed and a 7.98 ERA over seven starts with a .317 OBA. Rogers has allowed 26 earned runs in 29.1 innings at home, along with 40 hits. That is 5.7 hits per home start, so I like the value here.
I grabbed Rogers Over 4.5 hits allowed at +105 odds and would play this out to -140.
Pick: Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (1u)
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