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MLB K Props, July 7: Fading Gerrit Cole and Kris Bubic

Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole

Tom Horak-USA TODAY Sports

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Gerrit Cole O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox

It’s Gerrit Cole day in Boston!

Cole is doing his usual dealing this season. He is a candidate for the AL CY Young with his 7-2 record, 2.99 ERA (22nd) and 115 strikeouts (5th). Away from New York this season, Cole owns a 4-0 record, 3.80 ERA, .200 OBA and 54 strikeouts over 42.2 innings (eight starts).

However, over his last three road starts, we have seen some signs of struggle. Cole lasted 2.1 innings against the Twins on eight hits, seven runs and five home runs. Then Cole struck out 12 Rays over 7.1 innings before going 6.0 innings of a 13-4 blowout against the Guardians. Against Cleveland, Cole tossed 6.0 innings with six Ks to three walks.

Boston has had Cole’s number historically when he visits Fenway. The Yankees ace has allowed three, three and five earned runs in his last three trips, plus five or more hits in all three for 19 total.

Cole also has not pitched more than 6.0 innings at Boston in his career, per statmuse.

Gerrit Cole

Gerrit Cole

This season, when Cole goes 6.0 or fewer innings, he is 6-2 to the Under 6.5 strikeouts (75%) and 3-3 for his career to the Under 6.5 Ks at Fenway (50%).

When the number is 7.5 Ks, Cole is 7-1 to the Under (87.5%) this season and 4-2 to the Under at Fenway (66.6%).

As long as Bobby Dalbec is not in the lineup, this should be golden. It would be a plus to avoid Christian Arroyo as well. Besides those two, Boston has solid strikeout numbers versus Cole.

Let’s roll with Cole Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-126) for 1.5 units. I would play the Under 6.5 strikeouts for 1 unit.

Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 7.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

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Kris Bubic O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros

Let’s continue to fade Royals pitchers against the Astros, because, well it’s worked out well so far.

Plus, this has been the best series of the week to watch and live bet. Bubic is another target for the Under against this Houston lineup that does not chase and puts up runs in bunches.

Bubic is posting a career-low 18.3 K% this season and a career-high 12.6 BB%. Looking over Bubic’s baseball savant page, he ranks in the bottom of the MLB in K%, whiff%, walk % and chase rate.

A lot of blue on this page and that is not a good sign for a 24-year-old LHP making his first start at Houston. This Astros lineup has held six of the last 10 starting LHP Under 3.5 strikeouts (60%) and seven of the past 10 Under 4.5 Ks (70%).

Bubic

Bubic

Bubic has one career start versus Houston, which came earlier in the season at Kansas City. He went 5.0 innings with three strikeouts, three walks and five hits allowed, plus no earned runs. That will change.

Bubic made four road starts this season and allowed 12 earned runs. In five road appearances this season, he permitted 13 total earned runs for a 6.16 ERA and .308 OBA.

His strikeout numbers on the road look decent, but are misleading. Bubic recorded seven Ks against the Angels, six Ks versus the Giants, four Ks versus the Tigers and one K against the Mariners.

He allowed five or more hits in all four road starts and surrendered at least one walk, averaging 2.0 walks per road start. Over the last seven days, Houston has 27 walks (T-4th most), 49 strikeouts (T-9th fewest) and 43 runs (1st). Not to mention, the Astros rank top eight in BA, OBP, OPS and SLG during that span.

So Bubic will be going up against one of, if not the hottest offense in baseball.

Let’s fade Bubic as well and go Under 3.5 strikeouts for -102 odds. I would play this to -140.

Pick: Kris Bubic Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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