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Clayton Kershaw O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Angels
Clayton Kershaw has been on a tear in his past two games, racking up 8 and 10 strikeouts against the Cubs and Padres over 14.2 total innings.
The Dodgers star seems like he is finally finding his form and getting a crosstown matchup with a strikeout-prone Angels team that has struggled to score in most of their games is appealing.
Kershaw has a 2.73 ERA on the road this season, along with a .228 OBA and 1.0 strikeout per inning average. He has only recorded seven or more strikeouts in two road games this season, but allowed two or fewer earned runs in five out of six starts (At Colorado as the lone with 2+ ER).
A couple LHP like Framber Valdez (13 Ks), Robbie Ray (10 Ks) and Tyler Anderson (8 Ks) had terrific outings versus the Angels lately.
The Angels have only hosted 11 starting LHP this season and five of them hit six or more Ks, per statmuse. Outside of Shane McClanahan, Kershaw is the next best LHP they have faced at home all season.
Let’s ride Kershaw’s hot streak and go Over 6.5 strikeouts at +106 odds for 2u versus that other Los Angeles team.
Pick: Clayton Kershaw Over 6.5 Strikeouts (2u)
Madison Bumgarner O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Padres
Madison Bumgarner will make his fourth start of the season versus the Padres on Friday at Petco Park.
MadBum has a 20.1 K% and .257 OBA versus the Padres over 154 plate appearances. Bumgarner has three starts this season versus San Diego and recorded 11 strikeouts over 12.0 innings with an 0-2 record, 4.50 ERA and .280 OBA.
The veteran recorded four, five and two strikeouts in the three starts, plus he failed to surpass 5.0 innings in all three.
LHP are 9-7 to the Under 4.5 Ks at San Diego this season (56.2%) and 6-4 in the last 10 (60%), per statmuse. Out of the last 25 starting LHP overall, the Padres held 15 of them Under 4.5 Ks (60%).
On the road, Bumgarner owns a 4.38 ERA, .270 OBA and 0.75 Ks per inning. However, Bumgarner has not pitched on the road since June 22nd. That road outing came against San Diego, so I like the chances the Padres get to him once again (9 hits, 6 runs, 4 earned runs, 5 strikeouts).
I played Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts at -126 odds for 2 units and would go with this until -150 odds.
Pick: Madison Bumgarner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (2u)
Devin Smeltzer O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox
Devin Smeltzer will be making his first career start versus the White Sox and guess what, he is a LHP.
The White Sox lead the league against LHP in batting average (.288), SLG (.459) and OPS (.804), plus second in OBP (.345). Chicago against LHP has been one of the better trends to follow over the past few years and this season has been no exclusion.
He has an impressive 2.10 ERA and .173 OBA at home this season over five starts, but looking at the competition, I am less than impressed. Smeltzer started against the Orioles, Rays, Royals and Guardians twice. While those teams have gone on their streaks, none of them rank top 10 in batting average or runs scored this season.
The White Sox are going to give Smeltzer fits and despite his stellar home numbers, he has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four out of five home starts (80%).
Let’s fade the LHP and 26-year-old Smeltzer Under 3.5 for -112 odds on FanDuel against the White Sox. This was 4.5 and moving fast towards -150 odds for 3.5 Ks.
Pick: Devin Smeltzer Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
José Quintana O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies
We have another LHP making their way to Colorado, this time it is José Quintana of the red-hot Pirates.
Quintana has not pitched at Coors Field since 2019 and has four total starts in Colorado. Quintana has four or fewer Ks in two of those four starts and two or more earned runs in all four.
Versus current Rockies hitters, Quintana owns a .293 OBA and 19.2 K% over 78 plate appearances. Colorado is hitting .288 versus LHP this season (2nd) and top five in OBP, OPS and SLG.
On the year, eight of 18 starting LHP went Under 3.5 strikeouts at Coors Field. While this prop would be better at 4.5, I am willing to take the 3.5 for 1 unit as Quintana has not pitched in Colorado since 2019.
Let’s fade Quintana, who has a 4.41 ERA, .254 OBA and 0.79 Ks per inning on the road this season. The Rockies have no excuse not to smack around the Pirates below-average lefty.
I played Quintana Under 3.5 strikeouts (-105) and would play this to -140.
Pick: José Quintana Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Cole Irvin O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros
The Oakland Athletics will toss Cole Irvin on the mound versus a team he has yet to win against.
Since 2021, Irvin has pitched six times versus Houston and the Astros won all six and covered the run line four times.
Irvin has already pitched twice against Houston this season but both outings came in Oakland. Irvin recorded two strikeouts in each of those starts over 6.0 and 5.2 innings of action (3 ER, 2 BB).
At Houston last season, Irvin went 11.1 total innings for eight earned runs, five home runs allowed, two walks and seven strikeouts over two starts. He has struggled mightily when at Houston and over 101 total plate appearances against Astros hitters, Irvin has a .245 OBA and 8.9 K%.
Houston is hitting .236 versus LHP this season (21st), but has the ninth-fewest strikeouts (186) over the 7th-most at-bats (863). Let’s fade Irvin Under 3.5 Ks at -165 odds and risk 1.5u.
Pick: Cole Irvin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (Risk 1.5u)
Zack Greinke O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays
Zack Greinke burnt me in his previous start versus the Guardians. He recorded a season-high five strikeouts over 5.0 innings of action, but we are back on the fade train.
The 38-year-old will take his 7.46 ERA to Toronto for a matchup with the Blue Jays after they put the smackdown on the Phillies (the same day they fired their manager). I think the Blue Jays are about to go streaking and Greinke is a quality opponent to get another win against.
Greinke started two outings versus the Blue Jays in 2021 as a member of the Astros and recorded seven total strikeouts over 13.0 innings. He completed a complete 9.0-inning performance the last outing versus Toronto but only managed three strikeouts in addition to six hits.
In five of his eight career starts at Toronto, Greinke has gone for three or fewer strikeouts dating back to 2005.
Greinke has a 3.94 ERA and 0.75 Ks per inning for his career against the Blue Jays and this is one of the better hitting Toronto teams he will face. Let’s fade Greinke Under 3.5 strikeouts (-134).
Pick: Zack Greinke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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