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Fading Tarik Skubal, Erick Fedde and Aaron Civale K Props

Tarik Skubal

Tarik Skubal

Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

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Tarik Skubal O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox

Can you believe its been since June 17th that the White Sox faced a starting LHP? Because teams know to avoid it.

Well, here we are. Tarik Skubal comes into this matchup off his worst K performance of the season, striking out down one Kansas City Royal hitter over 4.2 innings and 89 pitches. He owned a 5.85 ERA in June over six starts and a 9.64 ERA in July from the Kansas City start. Skubal is 5-0 to the Under 5.5 strikeouts in his last five starts.

Skubal has faced the White Sox five times in his career and hit six or more strikeouts three times. However, he has only pitched at Chicago twice and the last three meetings all came in Detroit.

Skubal has a 3.80 ERA, .237 OBA and 1.08 strikeouts per inning in eight road starts this year. He is 5-3 to the Under 5.5 Ks away from home (62.5%) and 4-1 to the Under in the last five road starts (80%).

This season, the White Sox are hitting .285 versus LHP (2nd) and have the second-fewest strikeouts (134) on the second-fewest at-bats (547). Like I said, teams like to avoid throwing LHP out on the mound versus Chicago.

The White Sox held 11 out of 16 starting LHP Under 4.5 strikeouts and the five that went Over, all hit seven or more, per statmuse. Outside of Daniel Lynch, those four LHP that hit the Over make sense.

Skubal

Skubal

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Six of the last seven overall starting pitchers have gone Under 5.5 strikeouts against Chicago, so let’s keep riding that and their success against LHP. Logan Webb recorded five Ks and Dylan Bundy had six versus Chicago over the last seven games, other than that, the rest of the bunch had four Ks or fewer.

I risked 2 units on Tarik Skubal Under 5.5 Strikeouts against the Sox at -140 odds.

Pick: Tarik Skubal Under 5.5 Strikeouts (Risk 2u)

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Erick Fedde O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves

We are going to have some sort of play on the Braves today, but we will also fade Erick Fedde against Atlanta.

Fedde has nine appearances and eight starts versus Atlanta. Fedde is 0-5 with a 9.97 ERA versus the Braves over his career, including a 2-7 ML record for the Nationals (22.2%).

The Over is also 7-1-1 (87.5%) in the nine games he has pitched against Atlanta, so that, a hit parlay, or Braves Team Total will likely be our other play on this game.

Looking over Fedde’s game logs on statmuse versus the Braves, he has four or fewer strikeouts in seven out of nine appearances (77.7%) and six of the eight starts (75%).

Fedde has 118 plate appearances versus this current Braves roster and Atlanta owns a .382 batting average, 39 hits, 16 strikeouts, 14 walks and seven home runs. The Nats pitcher ranks in the 8th percentile for whiff %, the 3rd percentile for chase rate and poor ranks in K%, BB% and fastball spin.

Fedde vs ATL

Fedde vs ATL

On the road this season, Fedde has 22 strikeouts over 34.2 innings (0.64 Ks per innings) and seven starts. He averages 3.1 Ks away from Washington this season, plus owns a 3.89 ERA and .244 OBA.

Fedde has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in six straight starts on the road and 6-1 to the Under on the season (85.7%). Atlanta has faced seven pitchers in July so far and four out of seven stayed Under 4.5 Ks (57.1%) with Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Andre Pallante hitting five or six strikeouts.

I risked 2 units on Fedde Under 4.5 Strikeouts at -134 odds. I would play this to -160 odds before playing less units.

Pick: Erick Fedde Under 4.5 Strikeouts (Risking 2u)

Aaron Civale O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Royals

Aaron Civale will step in and take on a Kansas City Royals lineup that just have the Houston Astros problems.

Civale has four career starts versus the Royals, per statmuse (graph below). Since his first-ever appearance, which resulted in seven strikeouts (Kansas City won 11-1), he has yet to sit down more than three hitters.

The Guardians pitcher also walked a batter and permitted at least two earned runs in all four starts.

Civale vs Royals

Civale vs Royals

Versus current Royals hitters, Civale owns a 12.5 K% on seven strikeouts to five walks over 56 plate appearances. Kansas City batters have a .275 batting average on 14 hits with three homers against Civale.

Guys like Andrew Benintendi (.500), Whit Merrifield (.417), Edward Olivares (.667) and Hunter Dozier (.300) are all hitting .300 or better versus Civale.

Lately, Kansas City has been stellar against pitchers not on the Astros. They struck out seven or more times in three-straight versus Houston, but before that, the Royals struck out three or fewer times versus starting pitching in five consecutive games.

When RHP are at Kansas City, they are 6-4 to the Under 3.5 Ks since June (60%). I grabbed Civale Under 3.5 Ks at +105 odds and would play this out to -140.

This prop will be close, but his xwOBA is trending in the wrong direction and I will not put too much stock into his six strikeouts versus the Yankees.

Pick: Aaron Civale Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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