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After a long afternoon of baseball, MLB will wrap things up with a short nightcap. Luckily, this is where I see the most value on the board. Let’s get to some best bets.
Toronto Blue Jays (+115) vs. New York Yankees (-136) Total: 8.5
Kevin Gausman‘s Blue Jays tenure is off to a tough start. He allowed three runs on an ugly eight hits against the Texas Rangers, an offense that is much-improved but pales in comparison to the Yankees’. On top of that, his second half last season was terrible; he posted a 4.42 ERA in 15 starts, and hitters were .276 against him.
All this is to say, it’s hard to write off his first start of the season as a bump in the road when we haven’t seen him dominate in some time now. The Yankees were one of the leaders in exit velocity a year ago and have begun the season with a league-best hard-hit rate over 55%, meaning the probability that Gausman allows home runs and extra-base hits is quite high given the amount of hits he’s been allowing.
Now, it’s hard to say Luis Severino is back, and it’s even harder to say how he’ll look on Thursday. He did, however, strike out five hitters against the Red Sox in his first start of the season and the Yankees went on to win that game on the strength of the bullpen behind Severino. New York’s relievers have easily been the best part of the team thus far, and even if this staff can hold Toronto to five runs I feel good about the Yankees coming through with a win. Gausman has really been that much of a liability of late.
Edge: Yankees -136
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Chicago Cubs (+100) vs. Colorado Rockies (-121) Total: 11
Justin Steele had a pretty promising first start, allowing just five baserunners over five scoreless innings against the Brewers last week, but I have a hunch that Thursday won’t be so kind to him.
That’s because the Rockies are heading back home after scoring 10 on the road in a two-game series in Texas and have now won four straight games. Colorado has been an absolute nightmare at the plate, and the most troubling part of it all is that it has registered just five home runs — divided between three players. The Rockies have been hitting up and down the order, and eventually, at Coors Field, those homers will come. When they do, this team may be much better than expected at the plate.
The Cubs, meanwhile, have been carried on offense by just three hitters — Seiya Suzujki, Ian Happ and Willson Contreras. Each has an astronomical batting average, and the rest of the Cubs have been disappointments. Clint Frazier has just two hits, and Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom have mustered up just one. Even Frank Schwindel, who came into the season with lofty expectations, has flopped at the plate.
Chicago’s offense has been missing since the first two games of the season, and given how reliant it is on just three hitters, it may come cratering further back down to Earth. I know Kyle Freeland didn’t fare well on Opening Day, but he did have to face the best lineup in baseball in Los Angeles, and he did deal for three innings. He should be more than capable of handling one of the ugliest-looking lineups in the National League.
Edge: Rockies -121
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