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MLB Best Bets for August 12

Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

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We have a splendid baseball slate in store for Friday as we begin a tantalizing weekend, and it’s about time we get to some best bets. Here’s how I’m seeing the card.

New York Yankees (-121) vs. Boston Red Sox (+100) Total: 9.5

The Yankees and Red Sox have played to a whopping eight overs in 10 meetings this season, and Friday night really shouldn’t be all that different.

Nate Eovaldi is in the midst of a rocky season with a 4.26 xERA, and it’s one which has seen him surrender six runs to the Yankees in 9 1/3 innings to this point. On the other side of things, Domingo German’s ERA is still above five runs through four starts, and in Fenway Park he owns a career 4.68 ERA.

I’m not advocating for either side here considering how poorly both men have pitched this season, and with how awful German has been in Boston throughout his career. Instead, I think it’s pretty easy to turn to the over. Boston is 10th in wRC+ in the last week of play and while the Yankees are shockingly 19th they should be delighted to face a strike-thrower with a very high 46.7% hard-hit rate this season.

Edge: Over 9.5

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Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) vs. Colorado Rockies (-121) Total: 12.5

I’d actually make the Diamondbacks a decent favorite here. Zach Davies has really had a solid season for his standards; he’s still inducing ground balls at around a 42% clip and he’s actually managed to not only improve his dastardly 43.3% hard-hit rate from a season ago, he’s moved it into elite territory with a 31.4% mark ranking inside the top 10% of the league.

The righty hasn’t allowed a run to the Rockies in 11 1/3 innings this season, and while both of those starts have come in Arizona, it’s worth noting that Colorado has the third-highest ground ball rate in baseball this season and just a 34.2% hard-hit rate in the last week. Both of those figures will play right into Davies’ hands.

On the other side of things, Arizona actually owns a 108 wRC+ in the last week of play and grades out as an above-average club against fastballs. I have plenty of confidence in this lineup against the struggling Antonio Senzatela, who throws an extremely hittable four-seamer.

Edge: Diamondbacks +100