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We’ve rid ourselves of the short slate and are on to a very complete Tuesday slate with a ton of games spanning the entire day. I’ve got two interesting lines I’ve spotted and I want to get to them now.
Detroit Tigers (+100) vs. Kansas City Royals (-121) Total: 8.5
You may be wondering why I’ve willingly chosen to bet on a game pitched by Beau Brieske and Kris Bubic. Well, the thing is, they’re pretty evenly matched. Brieske and Bubic both rank among the worst in baseball when it comes to expected ERA, meaning if we can find a discrepancy in the offenses we may be able to find some value.
Boy, do I think we have a significant difference here. Not only does Detroit rank 20th in wRC+ in the last two weeks and Kansas City 10th, the Tigers are firmly below average in run production against left-handed pitching this year. What’s more, they are bottom five in runs per 100 fastballs and runs per 100 changeups, which is the two-pitch mix that Bubic will employ here.
Kansas City has been making plenty of contact lately with a strikeout rate under 20%, and that should really help here against a pitcher in Brieske who has a hard-hit rate worse than 50%.
Edge: Royals -121
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Houston Astros (-125) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+105) Total: 8
Yes, I’ll happily take the bait here. We’ve got the No. 1 team in the league when it comes to wRC+ over the last two weeks in the Astros and the No. 30 team (out of 30) in the league in the Angels.
On top of that, Noah Syndergaard is pitching for L.A. — and he’s been pretty terrible. His strikeout rate is a measly 18.8%, and his expected ERA is almost a run higher than his real-life 3.83 ERA. His xwOBA on contact is a .392, all of which is going to be simply disastrous against a team as strong as Houston.
Luis Garcia may be going through his ups and downs over the last five starts, but he’s still an awfully talented pitcher and one who enters with solid peripherals and a 3.69 xERA. He should shut down a sorry lineup.
Edge: Astros -125