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MLB Best Bets for July 6

Josh Rojas

Josh Rojas

Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

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We’re locked and loaded for another great slate of baseball on Wednesday with games starting in the afternoon and lasting well into the evening. I’ve got two plays I’ve picked out and I’ll share them now.

St. Louis Cardinals (+145) vs. Atlanta Braves (-176) Total: 8.5

The Cardinals have only been marginally above average over the last two weeks, but I still really like their chances on Wednesday. Yeah, I know Max Fried is pitching — I know that.

St. Louis has actually been excellent against lefties this year, ranking second in wRC+ within the split and boasting a low 20.3% strikeout rate and a great .174 ISO. Fried has been slightly strikeout reliant and I’m not quite sure about the matchup for him. St. Louis packs a real punch from the right side of the plate.

I also have plenty of faith in Miles Mikolas here, for he is the master of inducing soft contact. The Braves have an ISO over .200 in the past two weeks and lean strongly on homers and barrels, and Mikolas with his 6.1% barrel rate and 33.4% hard-hit rate is the perfect guy to take on Atlanta.

Edge: Cardinals +145

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San Francisco Giants (-131) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) Total: 8.5

I know it may seem like the Giants are due for a win, particularly over a bad team, but I just don’t see it in the cards here for San Francisco. Not with Alex Cobb pitching to the team that’s No. 1 in contact rate in the last 14 days.

Arizona has an above-average wRC+ despite no power numbers to speak of, expertly placing soft contact to dink and dunk its opponents to death. The Diamondbacks have also walked near 10%, which helps, but the point here is that Cobb — a guy who has strong peripherals pointing to positive regression due to softly-hit balls — isn’t a great matchup here.

This is a team which will take what Cobb gives them while he pitches to contact. That should be enough considering San Francisco’s bullpen is 25th in ERA over the last two weeks and considering the offense has totally floundered. It’ll also help matters that the effective Merrill Kelly is getting the ball here.

Edge: Diamondbacks +110