The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
We really begin to hit our stride this week with a loaded slate of games on Tuesday. I’ve got a play on two of them and I’ll share below.
Milwaukee Brewers (+130) vs. New York Mets (-155) Total: 8
I’m going to gear up for two underdogs I see a ton of value in on Tuesday. The first of which is the Brewers, who will draw a fading Chris Bassitt on the road.
The right-hander may have a 3.53 xERA which would indicate improvement is on the way from his 4.35 real-life ERA, but Bassitt has been terribly unimpressive with a 7.9% walk rate and a .376 xwOBA on contact. The former would be the third-worst mark of his career and the latter the second-worst, if his campaign ended today.
The Brewers aren’t exactly killing it right now, but they do rank fifth in contact rate over the last two weeks and own a somewhat-decent 7.3% walk rate. Bassitt has relied on strikeouts this season with some poor command seeping in and with a more disciplined team I think he will fail.
The Mets, meanwhile, have slipped to 17th in contact rate over the last two weeks and that’ll be a real shame considering Adrian Houser‘s inability to pitch to contact. This is a good value play.
Edge: Brewers +130
Editor’s Note: NBC Sports Predictor: Play for FREE and win huge jackpots up to $100,000! Download the app today.
Houston Astros (-125) vs. Texas Rangers (+105)
There’s a reason this line is what it is. The Rangers are beginning to hit the ball with a 106 wRC+ over the last two weeks and that’s due in large part to the resurgence of Marcus Semien, who is playing like the MVP candidate he was a season ago with Toronto. Texas may be sporting mediocre strikeout and walk numbers, but it is making solid contact and coming up with results.
They’ll be more than capable of hitting Jose Urquidy, who ranks in the bottom 4% of the league in expected ERA and bottom 7% in barrel rate. He’s giving up absolute missles out there and striking out just 17% of hitters. This has all the makings of another disaster with the Rangers’ recent power surge.
Then, there’s Dane Dunning. He hasn’t been that great this season, but he does have an expected ERA near four runs and did get through 5 2/3 innings against Houston earlier this year with just two runs charged to his name. Houston’s regressed just the slightest bit off its elite offensive pace as well, making this a good spot.
Edge: Rangers +105
