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Wednesday is always a great day to bet on some baseball, and this week is no exception. I’ve got a couple of plays I’m really into and I’ll get to them now.
Milwaukee Brewers (-136) vs. New York Mets (+115) Total: 7.5
This is a rare great spot for the Brewers. First of all, Corbin Burnes will be pitching — and while he hasn’t been phenomenal he’s still managed to strike out an incredibly elite 31.8% of batters this season. His whiff rate is in the 99th percentile and his chase rate in the 95th.
Now the Mets aren’t a team which is going to do a ton of damage when they do hit the ball, ranking in the bottom 12 of the league in barrel rate and hard-hit rate over the past two weeks. That’s never been their calling card; they’ve gotten here by making a whole lot of soft contact and placing the ball in the right areas on the field. They rank second in contact rate for the season but in those last two weeks are down in 10th, and as a result are rocking just s 107 wRC+.
Burnes’ only undoing is really the hard-hit ball, and he’s been fantastic at getting swings and misses out there. I think this is an excellent matchup for him, and on the other side of things we have the walking mediocrity that is David Peterson, who has allowed a ton of walks and hard-hit balls this year.
The Brewers have been really bad lately, but give me Milwaukee on Wednesday.
Edge: Brewers -136
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Los Angeles Angels (+170) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-206) Total: 8.5
The Freeway Series is always a fun time, and Wednesday night will be no exception. I don’t think it’ll be fun for the reasons many think though.
No, I don’t see a ton of runs in this game, I’m just excited to watch two great lefties match up in Tyler Anderson and Reid Detmers. The two have been effective this season, but Anderson has been particularly strong. I have absolutely no doubts about his ability to get outs considering his firmly above-average 23.4% strikeout rate. The Angels have been terrible at the dish lately, but in particular they’ve been striking out like crazy with a 29.7% rate over the last two weeks. That is almost unheard of!
Both of these teams are in the bottom eight of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks, so I don’t think it’s that bold to claim that this one will be low-scoring. The Dodgers have been reeling at the dish and things should continue here. Not only do they struggle with lefties, the Dodgers are also 16th in run value against the fastball this year — the favorite pitch of Detmers.
I’ll grab the under up to eight.
Edge: Under 8.5
