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We’ve hit the weekend, and we have several series across the leagues which are really heating up. I’ve got two plays I’m a big fan of and I’ll share them below.
Toronto Blue Jays (+150) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-180) Total: 8
The Brewers haven’t been able to hit left-handed pitching this year, but I don’t really care. That’s because Yusei Kikuchi — one of my favorite players to fade in the big leagues — is on the hill for Toronto.
As many know by this point, Kikuchi’s Baseball Savant page is bluer than the sky. He’s in the bottom 2% in hard-hit rate and expected ERA, and in the bottom 1% in barrel rate. Say what you will about the Brewers’ mediocrity at the plate, they still have a 7.9% barrel rate which is plenty good enough to get to Kikuchi here.
I think Milwaukee can do more than enough here to get some runs on the board early against Kikuchi to let Corbin Burnes operate. Toronto has fallen to the bottom of the top 10 in hard-hit rate in the last week despite ranking third in wRC+, and I think there’s a little bit of room for Burnes to dig his heels in and shove against Toronto.
Edge: Brewers First Five -0.5 (-121)
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Philadelphia Phillies (+110) vs. San Diego Padres (-131) Total: 7.5
On the opposite end of the spectrum, many might look at Blake Snell‘s Statcast numbers and deduce he’s been unlucky to have a 5.46 ERA considering his 3.84 xERA. A relatively low hard-hit rate and xwOBA on contact are what’s behind that, but there are plenty more concerning things.
Snell has a gaudy 13% walk rate this season and has had a rough time getting hitters out. His strikeout rate is good, but lower than normal at 26%. Philadelphia is ninth in strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties this year and has a walk rate over 8% in the last week.
I’m confident Philadelphia can get some baserunners against Snell here and love Zach Eflin, who has hardly walked anyone this year and been a bit unlucky considering his 32% hard-hit rate. San Diego needs walks to survive, and it won’t get them here.
Edge: Phillies +110
