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It’s Thursday in the major leagues, and while we don’t have a ton of matches to bet on we do have plenty of intriguing matchups happening all throughout the night. I’ve got plays on two, and I’ll pass them along here.
San Diego Padres (+115) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-136) Total: 8
A pitching matchup between Joe Musgrove and Mitch White sounds straightforward, and it really should be.
Musgrove has been excellent, ranking int he top 10% of the league in average exit velocity and in the top 15% in expected ERA with a 2.83, as well as walk rate (5.4%) and barrel rate (4.8%). He’s the perfect man to combat a Dodgers lineup that consistently makes quality contact and loves to walk.
With that being said, the last couple of weeks have been a little disappointing for the Dodgers. They’ve walked in just 7.9% of plate appearances in the last two weeks despite a relatively solid 125 wRC+, and they’ve also struck out in 23.6%. This just doesn’t sound very good when you look at Musgrove’s season-long numbers and his ability to miss bats.
I’m not the Padres’ biggest fan, but man — Mitch White has been bad. He owns a 3.98 ERA this season in the starting rotation and has some dastardly peripherals including a 4.37 xERA and a .415 xwOBA on contact. San Diego can get the bat on the ball enough to win this game behind a solid pitching performance.
Edge: Padres +115
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Oakland A’s (+190) vs. Seattle Mariners (-236) Total: 7.5
I think both of these offenses are stinking up the joint at the moment. In the last 14 days, they’re both lacking in the quality-of-contact department with the A’s down in last place with a 29.7% hard-hit rate and the Mariners just a spot better than them at 31.6%.
With that, it’s no surprise that the A’s are dead last in wRC+ and the Mariners just barely above average with a 102 wRC+ in the last 14 days. Seattle has been aided by the walk, but it is striking out far too much to be a competent offense.
Adrian Martinez has pitched just one game in the major-leagues, but I have enough faith in one of the top prospects in the Oakland system to shut down this sorry Mariners offense after his excellent debut against the Tigers last week. You already know Logan Gilbert will shove against the worst offense in baseball over the last 14 days.
Edge: Under 7.5
