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After a hefty slate of afternoon baseball, we’ve got a good offering of games here in the evening. I’ve picked out my two favorite bets and will get to them below.
Boston Red Sox (+105) vs. Atlanta Braves (-125) Total: 8.5
The Red Sox are in rough shape. They’re now 11-19 and have really struggled to hit the ball of late. While they’ve done a decent enough job of actually making contact, they’ve hardly done anything with it. Boston is 24th in wRC+ over the past two weeks with a sub-par mark of 88 and owns just a .104 ISO.
Now, while they will be facing a very middling pitcher at the moment in Ian Anderson, it’s important to remember that Anderson’s two main areas of concern have been hard-hit balls and walks. The Red Sox have done little to impact play with their quality of contact an own just a 7% walk rate in the last two weeks. This isn’t the type of team to trouble Anderson too much.
On the other side of the coin, Nate Eovaldi has ranked in the bottom 23% of the league in hard-hit rate and in the bottom 16% in barrel rate. With that, he’s allowed a whopping eight homers in six starts. The Braves rank fifth in barrels per plate appearance and should get a few cracks here. That should be enough to tip the scales.
Edge: Braves ML (-125)
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Houston Astros (-125) vs. Minnesota Twins (+105) Total: 8.5
Is it 2015? No, it’s not. So, it’s time to hop on board and fade Chris Archer. The righty has been a disaster in the last few years, and even with a 3.26 ERA this season he’s allowed seven barrels on just 54 batted balls and walked 10.8% of hitters. That all equates to a .379 xwOBA and a 5.24 expected ERA.
Yeah, things are bad, and they’re going to get worse for Archer, who hasn’t been effective in five years or so. The Astros have been one of the unluckiest teams in the game, possessing one of the highest gaps between wOBA and xwOBA to this point, and over the last two weeks they’ve finally begun to see the ball bounce their way. In that period of time, Houston is sixth in wRC+.
The fun doesn’t stop there, though, because the Twins are actually fourth in wRC+ in the same span. They, too, will face a pitcher with an xERA over five runs in Jose Urquidy. The right-hander is throwing an incredibly hittable fastball at the moment and should get destroyed here by Houston. I’ll gladly take the over.
Edge: Over 8.5
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