Editor’s Note: This article was published on October 31 prior to Game 3 being postponed.
The Phillies and Astros will both try to take control of the World Series after splitting the first two in Houston. Can the home team find a way to get it done? Let’s dive into this one.
Houston Astros (-135) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+115) Total: 8
Now, I have to admit that my plan entering this series was to bet the Phillies in every game except for Game 3. That’s because Cristian Javier was projected to line up against Ranger Suárez in a game where I simply couldn’t find a way to, in good conscience, take the Phillies.
Things have changed. Instead of those two in this contest, it’ll be Lance McCullers and Noah Syndergaard, which is to say it’ll be Lance McCullers against the Phillies’ bullpen. In this situation, I’m actually inclined to take the Phillies.
I simply don’t like this matchup for McCullers. Yes, he’s a right-hander, and the Phillies prefer lefties. Yes, he does have a 2.77 ERA in 68 1/3 postseason innings. I know all of this, but there’s one key edge we’re leaving out.
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That’s the fact that Philly feasts on breaking balls. This team ranked 11th in weighted runs per 100 sliders this season and seventh against curveballs. Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm are actually among the top 33 players in all of baseball in run value against the curve, and Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are all inside the top 45 against sliders.
McCullers, of course, has made his living off of these two pitches. They account for over 50% of all pitches he’s thrown this season, which is great news for this team. They have the tools to hit McCullers’ arsenal, and we’re not even mentioning the fact that the righty was a massive regression candidate this year with an expected ERA over a full run higher than his 2.27 mark. He posted a walk rate over 11% for a second straight season and was stranding runners left and right.
This Phillies offense is good enough to get to McCullers. The question then becomes one of how good this Phillies bullpen is. Well, they’ve posted a 2.65 ERA this October, and hitters are just .204 off of Philly’s relievers. While those numbers aren’t as good as Houston’s, I still don’t think there is a ton to be concerned about. Syndergaard owns a 1.69 ERA this postseason and there’s no reason to believe he can’t keep this game under control for a few innings given he’s had success against Atlanta and San Diego in recent weeks.
I think the Phillies actually hold a bit of value here given McCullers’ peripherals and the home side’s ability to crush breaking balls.
Edge: Phillies +115
