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We’ve got two games on our hands this Wednesday as we power through the Division Series in both leagues. Here’s how I see each shaking out.
Philadelphia Phillies (+125) vs. Atlanta Braves (-145) Total: 7.5
Zack Wheeler has been simply incredible this season. He finished up with a 2.82 ERA to come in under three runs for a third straight year, and his strikeout rate was a beefy 26.9%. By every predictive metric, his season was completely legitimate. He allowed just a .343 xSLG and a 34.5% hard-hit rate, both of which put him in the upper quarter of the league.
In the postseason, he’s been just as good. He made one start over the weekend in the wild-card series where he allowed just four baserunners in 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals, and he looks for all the world to be a pitcher worth betting on in this spot.
Wheeler has absolutely owned the Braves over the past two seasons, allowing just 12 earned runs across 53 2/3 innings. That equates to a 2.01 ERA, which come along with a meaty 66 strikeouts. The Braves had a ton of success against a soft-tossing left-hander in Ranger Suárez on Tuesday, but that was to be expected. This will be a far tougher task, and I think the Phillies’ bats can stay hot here with some encouraging signs in Game 1.
Edge: Phillies +125
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San Diego Padres (+160) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) Total: 7
While I’ve certainly bought into and even profited from the Clayton Kershaw playoff narrative in previous years, I can’t sit here and tell you with certainty anymore that his postseason starts are always going to be an adventure. Not after Kershaw posted a 2.93 ERA in the 2020 postseason — his most recent with the Dodgers.
I also can’t really get over how good he was this season. Kershaw turned in arguably one of the best campaigns of his life, pitching to a 2.28 ERA and a 2.51 xERA. That included a very low xSLG, and he checked into the top 10% of the league in xSLG, xwOBA and xERA. Of course, he did have a ton of success against the Padres as well in his 12-plus innings.
I’m not sure this one is so easy for the Dodgers’ offense, either. Yu Darvish owns a 2.47 career ERA against the Dodgers and posted a 2.52 in four starts versus L.A. in 2022. He pitched seven innings of one-run ball against the Mets in the wild-card round and, while his postseason ERA sits at 4.50, he’s probably a better pitcher in October than that. The number is very inflated due to a couple nightmare outings against the Houston Astros in the World Series years ago, and I think we all know what was really behind those clunkers.
Anyway, I like the under here. I expect two solid outings from these legendary starters.
Edge: Under 7