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We’ve got just one game to bet on Monday night, but it’ll be a very captivating one. It’s time to get into how to bet on the Yankees and Guardians in a winner-take-all Game 5.
Cleveland Guardians (+135) vs. New York Yankees (-155) Total: 7.5
Because there’s just one game, I’m feeling inclined to give out two bets. The first of them will be to grab the Yankees here at -155 in a spot where I’d again make them around -170 favorites.
Aaron Civale really should stand no chance here against New York. The Guardians righty coughed up six runs against them in his only trip to Yankee Stadium this season and allowed four earned runs the next time he saw them in Cleveland, back in July. While folks are quick to point to his expected ERA, which ranks in the 52nd percentile in the league, I point to many of his other numbers which show he’s not a very good pitcher.
Civale’s hard-hit rate is well above 40% and he ranks in the bottom 40% of the league there, in barrel rate and in xSLG. He’s a terrible option against a Yankees team which packs a huge punch in the power department, and his history against them shows. That’s not even considering the guy has never pitched in the postseason before, and now he has to walk into an elimination game on the road.
So, I don’t know if it really matters that the Guardians have a rested bullpen. I have no faith in Civale against this lineup and do think a combination of Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes and Domingo German should do the trick against a Guardians offense which has looked rather sluggish all season long.
On the topic of Civale, he does love to throw the cutter and curveball, which account for almost 50% of his deliveries. These are two of Giancarlo Stanton‘s preferred three pitches, owning an xSLG of at last .494 against those. He’s a .263 hitter in his postseason career with 10 homers, including one this series. He’s live for another.
Edge: Yankees -155, Stanton HR (+450)
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