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We’ve got just one game to bet on Tuesday night after the Yankees and Guardians wrap the ALDS, but it’ll be a very captivating one. It’s time to get into how to bet on the Phillies and Padres in a pressure-packed Game 1.
Philadelphia Phillies (+105) vs. San Diego Padres (-125)
Yes, sure, Yu Darvish finished the season on a high note by posting a 3.10 ERA, recovering from a nightmare start to his 2022 campaign. He rarely walked anyone (4.8%) and posted a modest .363 xwOBA on contact. That doesn’t mean he’s going to shove here against the Phillies.
He did shut out Philadelphia early in the year over seven innings, but the next time this team saw him they scratched across three runs on seven hits and a walk over six frames. Now, with this Phillies offense really humming and with these bats getting a good feel for Darvish, I think this should be a home victory. After all, the Phillies have the best OPS of any team remaining in the postseason and the second-best of any team which participated.
Darvish owns a 4.60 ERA in his postseason career and is coming off a so-so start against the Dodgers which saw him allow three runs on seven hits and two walks over five frames. He’s now allowed four home runs, which is a huge concern.
Wheeler, meanwhile, has a 2.19 ERA this year in his first-ever postseason and didn’t allow a run over seven innings the only time he faced San Diego this season. I think this Padres offense is a bit overrated at the moment after running into some suspect teams and they’ll be in for a rude awakening against Wheeler.
Edge: Phillies +105
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