We’re on to Game 3 of the NLCS between the Phillies and Padres, and Philly can really grab a strangle hold on this series with a win here at home. Will they do so? Let’s get into how to bet this one.
San Diego Padres (-120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+100) Total: 7.5
The Phillies are on a roll right now. They have scored seven runs through two games so far in the NLCS and own a .675 OPS thus far in the postseason. The issue here is that the Padres’ offense has come back to life with a big Game 2 win, and that should make for a good Game 3 with so much up in the air.
The thing is, Joe Musgrove‘s worst start of the season came against the Phillies. He allowed six earned runs over six frames earlier this season with just one strikeout, looking totally lost. On top of that, the start came at home. This one’s going to come on the road in an incredibly hostile environment.
I do think Musgrove probably pitches a little bit better this time around, but it’s still hard to bet the Padres here given that and their horrible standing at 18th this season in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Ranger Suárez is a lefty, and while he wasn’t the best in his first postseason start he still pitched around five walks to hold Atlanta to one run over 3 1/3 innings in the NLDS.
I think you have to take the Phillies here, playing in front of a raucous crowd with Musgrove’s previous outing against Philly filed away in the back of his mind. This team is on the same plane as San Diego right now, and the Padres’ numbers against lefties could be damning.
Edge: Phillies +100
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