Game 1 of the World Series takes place on Friday night, and I simply can’t wait. Here’s how I’m betting this one.
Philadelphia Phillies (+140) vs. Houston Astros (-165) Total: 6.5
I don’t quite understand the oddsmakers’ read on this series. Yes, the Astros have an unblemished record this postseason, but they’re hardly this good. Jose Altuve has three hits for the entire postseason and Yordan Alvarez has fallen into a slump. Justin Verlander is cooking up his third straight postseason with an ERA over four runs. Houston’s still finding ways to strike out just like every other offense.
This Game 1 has the potential to really swing this series in the Phillies’ favor, and I think they’ll take it. Aaron Nola has been sparkling all season long, ranking inside the top 15% of all pitchers in strikeout rate, in the top 8% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate and in the top 10% in expected ERA. Everything about him is legit, and he is plenty capable of dominating this Astros order which is pretty bland aside from Alvarez, Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman.
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The Phillies enter this game with the higher OPS this postseason and while their bullpen is a huge question mark I’m not quite sure it’ll matter if Nola pitches as I expect him to. Should Nola go seven or more here (and there’s no reason he shouldn’t with so much time to rest), Philly can turn things over to the surprisingly reliable Sernanthony Domingez and Zach Eflin to finish this one off.
I’m also just not a huge fan of the way Verlander is pitching playoff games. He did shove against the Yankees, but it was his best postseason start in five years. He was torched by a pretty unassuming Mariners lineup in the ALDS and this Phillies team is surely better than they are. They also have plenty of bats which can handle high fastballs like Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto, neutralizing the former Cy Young Award winner’s best pitch.
I’m going to hop on Nola’s strikeout prop as well, because he’s gone eight straight outings now with six or more strikeouts (not including a start in September against the Nationals which was cut short after two innings due to rain). He’s had exactly six punchouts in all three starts this postseason and the Astros aren’t really immune to striking out.
Starters against Houston this postseason, aside from Jameson Taillon who doesn’t really strike out many hitters, have averaged over a strikeout per inning. Nola should go deep here, and his strikeout prowess should shine through.
I like the Phillies to jump out in front here behind a strong showing from Nola, and I’m going to bank on those Verlander postseason demons.
Edge: Phillies +140, Nola over 5.5 Strikeouts