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Welcome to the first day of the MLB Postseason. We’ve got baseball on all day, and to celebrate we can make some money. Let’s get into how.
Seattle Mariners (+110) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
I don’t see any reason why this would be a high-scoring affair. The under is 15-9-1 in Luis Castillo’s 25 starts this season, according to our NBC EDGE Finder, and 20-11 when Manoah has hit the mound. With the stakes high and both men coming in with good form, I see another under here.
Manoah pitched once against the Mariners this season, allowing just two runs on three hits over 7 1/3 innings. While he did walk four there, his low walk rate of 6.5% would indicate that it’s an outlier. Sure, the Mariners are one of the better teams at earning free passes, but they’re striking out at a 23.9% clip over the last two weeks and shouldn’t really be trusted here.
Castillo, meanwhile, threw six innings of two-run ball when he met the Blue Jays and has been one of the most effective arms in the American League ever since his arrival. I like both guys here.
Edge: Under 7
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San Diego Padres (+130) vs. New York Mets (-150) Total: 6
Yu Darvish has earned the reputation of a Mets killer with a 2.56 ERA against New York in 52 2/3 career innings and a shiny 5-0 record. He also pitched 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball in his lone 2020 postseason start and has experience in October. I trust him here against the Mets.
Sure, Max Scherzer could snap back into it, but in his last seven starts he owns a 3.16 ERA. That’s hardly like Max Scherzer, and let’s keep in mind that all seven of those games meant a heck of a lot to the Mets given they were in the heat of a divisional race.
I think there’s reasonable skepticism here, and given the fact that the Mets’ offense lacks power I think it is going to be hard to touch up Darvish. We’ve only ever seen him falter when he’s giving up longballs, and that’s simply not happening with this New York offense. There’s value on the underdog.
Edge: Padres +130