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Welcome to the second day of the MLB Postseason. We’ve got baseball on all day, and to celebrate we can make some money. Let’s get into how.
San Diego Padres (+145) vs. New York Mets (-170) Total: 5.5
For my money, there’s been no better pitcher in baseball down the stretch than Blake Snell. He’s pitched to a 0.72 ERA in his last four outings, striking out 32 in 25 innings. It capped what was a huge bounce-back season for the left-hander, who had been slipping into mediocrity and wasting his talent.
Snell brings it with a 32% strikeout rate and has pitched excellently to contact with a .207 xBA against him. In two starts against the Mets this year, he struck out nine in nine innings, though he did yield four earned in early June before shutting them out in five innings later in July.
If Snell is able to miss that many bats against a team which is brilliant at putting the bat on the ball, this one could get out of hand. New York was mediocre against lefties this year with a 109 wRC+ and shouldn’t be able to muster up much against a pitcher who is only really burned by the longball given their lack of power.
Jacob deGrom has allowed 14 earned runs in his last four starts, spanning 21 innings. That’s a brutal sight, and even with all his talent I’m not 100% confident he’ll just flip the switch and go back to shutting out teams, particularly one this good.
Edge: Padres +145
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Philadelphia Phillies (-120) vs. St Louis Cardinals (+100) Total: 6.5
The Cardinals’ bullpen is a disaster right now. Ryan Helsley threw 33 pitches on Friday and looks for all the world to be unavailable on Saturday. Giovanny Gallegos was used for 19 pitches and Andre Pallante 22. St. Louis can turn to a fresh Jack Flaherty or Steven Matz if need be, but it seems the big boys in this stable are either going to be tired or unable to go.
That’s going to put a lot of stress on Miles Mikolas, who has been pitching effectively all year but who is a slight regression candidate with a 3.89 xERA. He doesn’t sit many hitters down, opting to pitch to contact, and that could actually be a huge relief for a Phillies team which has been troubled with swinging strikes all season long.
I’m nervous on behalf of Mikolas, and on the other side of this matchup we have a version of Aaron Nola who looks unhittable. He sat in the top 10% of the league this season in xERA and has struck out at least eight in four straight outings. The Phillies are deserving road favorites.
Edge: Phillies -120