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We’ve got a packed slate of baseball to bet on Wednesday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
New York Yankees (-125) vs. Boston Red Sox (+110) Total: 9
Nestor Cortes should be able to go deeper into this game than when he first took the mound following his trip to the injured list, and as long as that’s the case I love the Yankees in this spot.
New York’s bats have quietly heated up over the past week, ranking sixth in wRC+, and in that time this offense is walking in 11.1% of plate appearances. For the season, the Yankees lead the league at 10%. Why do I bring all this up? Well, rookie Brayan Bello has a huge issue with walks, issuing a free pass in 11.7% of attempts.
I do have faith in Bello turning things around in his big-league career, but we haven’t seen the strikeout numbers he posted in the minors translate to the bigs, while we have seen those walk issues linger.
The Yankees are in a great place again and I think they should punish the youngster, who has yet to face them.
Edge: Yankees -125
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Milwaukee Brewers (-125) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+110) Total: 7
From one road favorite to another, this one is short and sweet. Corbin Burnes owns the St. Louis Cardinals.
No, like, he owns them. He has a 2.73 ERA in his career against the Cardinals, and in three starts this year he’s allowed just a run on eight hits over 21 innings. How many strikeouts does he have in that time? 28. Yes, Burnes has absolutely obliterated this offense and rendered them hopeless.
The Cardinals are down near the middle of the league in wRC+ over the last week, and while the Brewers aren’t much better they can at least boast the 11th-lowest ground ball rate in the league. That should help against Adam Wainwright, whose peripherals indicate is due for some regression. I think some of that batted ball luck will go the other way with fewer balls on the ground, and I expect the Brewers to win.
Edge: Brewers -125
