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We’ve got a packed slate of baseball to bet on Thursday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Cincinnati Reds (+235) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-280) Total: 8.5
You really can’t trust the Reds right now. They’re down in 25th when it comes to wRC+ over the last two weeks and worst of all they’re only striking out in 20.9% of plate appearances.
That is something nightmares are made of when you’re getting set to face one of the best in the league at pitching to contact. Cincinnati’s ISO rests and just .182 and its batting average at .252 during this time. If you’re going to try to beat Mikolas with contact, you are going to need some serious power considering he’s not going to give it up consistently.
On the other side of things, St. Louis is ninth in wRC+ over the last 14 days and draws an easy one here with 34-year-old Chase Anderson, whose best days are far behind him. He’s allowed nine runs in nine innings with nine walks, making him just about the last man you want to bet on.
Edge: Cardinals -1.5
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San Diego Padres (-165) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+140) Total: 9
If you haven’t been paying attention, Sean Manaea has been really bad. The lefty has pitched to a 5.23 ERA and 4.19 xERA, watching as his strikeout numbers dip and his contact numbers remain weak. Manaea has allowed a career-worst 9.3% barrel rate this season and there’s no end in sight for his struggles.
The over is 16-8-2 in Manaea’s starts this season and has hit in each of his last three. I think we’re going to dial up another one here on Thursday with rookie Drey Jameson on the hill for the Diamondbacks. If his big-league debut is anything like his minor-league track record, considering he owns a 6.31 ERA this year down on the farm, it’s going to be a long night.
Jameson has allowed a .286 average this season and should get torched by an improving Padres offense. On the other side here, Manaea shouldn’t have it easy against a Diamondbacks team with a 95 wRC+ in the last 14 days, which isn’t bad!
Edge: Over 9