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We’ve got a packed slate of baseball to bet on Tuesday and I’ve picked out two late games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
Houston Astros (+125) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-145) Total: 6
The Rays are hitting the ball somewhat well right now, but I think they’ll meet their maker on Tuesday against Cristian Javier. The right-hander has been absolutely unbelievable this summer, going for a 2.53 ERA in August with 36 strikeouts in 32 innings and a 0.79 ERA in two September starts with 16 punchouts in 11 1/3 innings.
Tampa Bay doesn’t look like the most whiff-happy team in the world when you look at its strikeout rate, but this team’s got the 10th-highest swinging strike rate in baseball in the second half. That should play right into Javier’s hands, considering he can rack up strikeouts with the best of them.
Houston has once again owned lefties to the tune of the third-best wRC+ in baseball and is second in wRC+ over the last two weeks. I don’t think this is going to be a fair fight.
Edge: Astros +125
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Boston Red Sox (-125) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+105) Total: 8
Boston has really been showing signs of life at the plate with a 105 wRC+ over the last two weeks, and with that has come a slightly reduced strikeout rate and more walks.
That is going to be key against Nick Lodolo, a player who can really miss bats and who has been victimized by the walk on a few occasions. His 3.81 ERA and 3.63 xERA are certainly strong, but not nearly good enough to keep a hot offense down. On top of this, the Red Sox’ ability to take pitches and walk should counteract the good pitch-to-contact ability we’ve seen from Lodolo.
More than this, though, Brayan Bello will get the start today. He’s been up and down for Boston, but I’m a huge fan of the way he’s pitched of late. He’s been ramping it up in the strikeout department to mirror his minor-league form, going for 42 now in 42 1/3 innings, and the Reds are 12th-worst in strikeout rate over the second half of the season. Bello should get whiffs and control this one.
Edge: Red Sox -125