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We’ve got a short slate of baseball to bet on Friday and I’ve picked out two games which I’m seeing plenty of value in. Let’s get to them.
New York Mets (-130) vs. Atlanta Braves (+110) Total: 6.5
Max Fried owns a 3.00 ERA against the Mets in 24 innings this year, and the Mets in general could be a lot better against southpaws with a 110 wRC+ in this split. Fried has been tremendous all year and should power down this Mets team which has just a .157 ISO in the last week.
More than this, Jacob deGrom could be broken. He has a 3.65 ERA against the Braves and a shocking 6.60 ERA in the last three starts. Atlanta knows this guy and has a solid .194 ISO in the last week to increase the likelihood of a big blow.
Fried has pitched to a 2.05 ERA this month and shut down the Mets the last time he saw them with two earned runs over six, and prior to that did the same thing in five frames. I just can’t trust deGrom given what we’ve seen.
Edge: Braves +110
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Chicago White Sox (+185) vs. San Diego Padres (-215) Total: 7.5
This may seem like it’s too low of a number considering we hardly know who Davis Martin is, but trust the oddsmakers here. This is going to be a low-scoring affair.
The under is 19-10 in Yu Darvish‘s starts this season, good for a 7.27-unit return on your investment, and it’s cashed in eight of his last 12 starts. He will draw a White Sox team which is 28th in wRC+ in the last week of play, and Darvish himself owns a 1.36 ERA in five September starts.
Martin owns a 3.86 ERA in 56 innings, and while he’s not really striking many people out his hard-hit and barrel rates remain solid. On top of this, the Padres are 15th in wRC+ in the last week and look sluggish at the plate.
Edge: Under 7.5
