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MLB K Props, October 11th: Alex Wood, Freddy Peralta, Jose Urquidy Ks

Alex Wood

Alex Wood

Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports

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Alex Wood O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers

Alex Wood will face a familiar foe on Monday as he takes on his former team the L.A. Dodgers.

Wood has faced L.A. three times in 2021 and posted 22 strikeouts to three walks in 17.0 innings. Wood pitched in Los Angeles twice this season and recorded seven and eight strikeouts over 5.0 and 6.0 innings pitched.

Wood last pitched for the Dodgers during the 2020 World Series run, so he should feel confident in this matchup against a group of guys he was sharing a locker room with last season.

Wood also pitched for the Dodgers from 2015-18 and 2020.

In 2021, Wood finished the regular season with 152 strikeouts, one more than his career-high with the Dodgers in 2017 (151). The 30-year-old Giants’ pitcher holds three pitches, the sinker (46.4%), slider (31.6%) and changeup (22%).

Wood ranks in the 65th percentile for K%, 61st percentile in whiff% and 70% in whiff percentile on the season, per baseballsavant.com. Solid numbers for him, to be honest.

Alex Wood percentiles

Alex Wood percentiles

Right now, Cody Bellinger is a guaranteed strikeout, Max Scherzer as well. That is possibly one or both players giving us 3-4 combined Ks if all goes well.

Scherzer has zero hits on the entire season for a .000 batting average. In 24 at-bats, he has zero hits and 15 strikeouts, with one RBI coming on a SAC fly. In 35 at-bats last season, Mad Max did not record a hit and had 13 strikeouts.

Bellinger leads the postseason with six strikeouts in three games as of yesterday, while Corey Seager and A.J. Pollock have proved strikeout prone with four apiece thus far.

I like Bellinger and Scherzer to provide us half the needed amount, so roll with Wood’s Over in the strikeout department. When Wood lasts 4.0 innings or more this season, he is 19-4 to the Over 4.5 Ks (82%).

I grabbed this at +100 and would play it out to -130.

Pick: Alex Wood Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

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Freddy Peralta O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Braves

The Braves were sat down six times by Corbin Burnes and seven by Brandon Woodruff in Games 1 and 2.

Freddy Peralta is up next with a chance to go up 2-1 in the series, pending a win in Atlanta.

Peralta has faced this Braves squad once this season and lit them up for eight strikeouts in 6.0 innings and 88 pitches of work. This will be Peralta’s first career postseason start after making 4.0 career innings of relief work.

Looking over this Atlanta group, they have a combined .167 batting average, .519 OPS and below average strikeout percentages versus Peralta, per baseballsavant.com.

Guys like Austin Riley, Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman and Travis d’Arnaud are all K options.

Peralta game log

Peralta game log

We cannot forget about Braves’ pitcher Ian Anderson. My hopes are that he goes up to bat twice, which should spell at least one strikeout.

In Anderson’s 37 at-bats this year, he struck out 29 times with one walk and two hits. Peralta has to capitalize and avoid a bunt situation at the 9-hole.

Peralta posts elite strikeout numbers and percentages, ranking above the 90th percentile in K% and whiff %, per baseballsavant.com. He has been a consistent force for the Brewers all season long.

Freddy peralta percentiles

Freddy peralta percentiles

I like the good times to keep going against the Braves. Whether or not the Brewers win, Peralta should be able to earn 5.5 strikeouts against Atlanta.

I think O/U 6.5 strikeouts is more appropriate, so I will grab the Over 5.5.

Whenever Peralta gets to 5.0 innings, he is 17-2 to the Over 5.5 strikeouts (89.4%), so that is what we need today.

I played this at +105 and would play it out to -135.

Pick: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

Jose Urquidy O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. White Sox

Jose Urquidy will make his ninth career postseason appearance and first of 2021 for Houston.

Urquidy has made it 5.0 innings only twice in his postseason career and hit five strikeouts one time and four Ks twice, per statmuse.

Jose Urquidy game log

Jose Urquidy game log

The Astros 26-year-old RHP faced Chicago earlier in the season at home, resulting in a 10-2 win. Urquidy lasted 7.0 innings and struck out five with one walk and five hits (93 pitches).

Despite that successful outing, Urquidy hit the Under on his strikeout total versus the White Sox and does not have more than three at-bats versus any of the hitters. That was his only career meeting with the White Sox.

Urquidy has used four pitches on the season, but his four-seam fastball has been his primary pitch at 54%, which is not positive for October baseball, per baseballsavant.com.

Jose pitch group

Jose pitch group

As far as percentile ranks, Urquidy is in the 32nd and 40th percentiles for K% and whiff%, per baseballsavant.com.

That makes him a strong bet on the Under, especially when you notice his xwOBA is trending in the wrong direction entering the postseason and a pivotal game.

Jose percentiles

Jose percentiles

Urquidy is 4-3 to the Under 3.5 strikeouts in his last seven starts (57.1%) and 5-2 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts (71.4%).

When he fails to last more than 5.0 innings, Urquidy is 5-3 to the Under 4.5 Ks (62.5%) and 5-3 to the Over 3.5 Ks (62.5%).

Urquidy has gone 4.2 innings or fewer only six times this season and he is 4-2 to the Under 4.5 Ks (66.7%) and 4-2 to the Over 3.5 Ks (66.7%). The hit rates are important when dealing with a pitcher with such a low strikeout total.

I like both lines for the Under but prefer to play the Under 4.5 strikeouts for a reasonable price.

I will update at what I grab here and on Twitter.

Pick: Jose Urquidy Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)

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