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Jameson Taillon O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays
Jameson Taillon is making his first start in three weeks as he comes off the IL.
Taillon suffered a partial tear in his right ankle tendon.
He made one appearance in the minors, throwing 51 pitches in three innings and allowed two runs. He admitted he was not feeling good but getting a shot and rehab helped -- I am not sure how it will feel versus Toronto’s offense.
The Blue Jays have 33 strikeouts to 14 walks in the last six games. The 33 Ks is the third-lowest total in the last seven days and lowest of any team that played five games -- the same goes for the past six outings.
Taillon does not have the best success against this Blue Jays team, leaving me to like the Under.
In 62 plate appearances versus Taillon, Toronto’s current roster has eight combined strikeouts and a .291 OBA and .861 OPS.
Three of the last 15 RHP went Over 4.5 strikeouts against the Blue Jays (20%) and one Over 5.5 Ks (6.7%), per statmuse.
On the road, Taillon owns a 5.66 ERA, .272 OBA and 61 strikeouts in 62 innings. In the two starts versus Toronto this season, Taillon owns eight strikeouts in 10.2 innings, plus a 6.75 ERA and .279 OBA versus the Blue Jays.
I doubt he goes beyond 5.0 innings today and when he does not, Taillon has hit the Under five out of eight times on the road and five of the last eight overall (62.5%). I would not play this past -160 odds.
Pick: Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Ks (1u)
Patrick Corbin O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies
We were burnt last time on Patrick Corbin‘s Under, but I am not afraid to go right back on his Under at Coors Field.
Corbin faced the Rockies on September 18th at home and totaled five strikeouts, three walks and 10 hits surrendered (six earned) in 4.0 innings.
In Corbin’s lengthy career, 13 current Colorado hitters and pitchers have a combined .359 BA, .750 SLG and 1.134 OPS. Charlie Blackmon has 47 plate appearances (9 Ks) and Trevor Story 33 (10 Ks) against Corbin.
Those two make up more than half (19) of Corbin’s 34 strikeouts against Colorado, which is not a good sign for Corbin.
NBC’s player prop model shows Corbin has a 64% hit rate to the Under 4.5 Ks and 71% on the road at 6.0 or fewer innings pitched. When he drops to 5.0 innings, those success rates reach 67% and 88%.
Since July 3rd, only 10 LHP have started at Coors Field versus the Rockies and one went Over 5.5 strikeouts (Alex Wood). Two (Julio Urias, Wood) went Over 4.5 Ks, per statmuse.
It’s never a bad idea to bet an Under at Coors from the opposing pitcher, to be honest.
As I said yesterday in Josiah Gray‘s Under 4.5 strikeout masterpiece, Colorado faced six tough pitchers in a row before seeing Gray at Coors -- the Nats’ rotation should be easy pickings for this Rockies lineup.
Corbin has not had a great season and while he has done well the past two games, I’m expecting his luck to leave the field a few times -- if you catch my drift. I would not play this past -160 odds.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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Luke Weaver O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Giants
If you did not know -- Luke Weaver has a 7.94 ERA on the road and guess what? His OBA is .299!
Tonight, Weaver faces the Giants, who remain atop the entire MLB standings in a race for the league’s best record with the Dodgers.
Every game matters for the Giants, and well, for the DBacks and Weaver, it’s not quite the same.
Arizona is playing for fun at this point (if that’s what losing is considered), meanwhile, Weaver takes the mound for lucky start No. 13 -- a quality pitcher for this lineup to attack as they are hitting .275 in the last seven days (6th).
Over Weaver’s career, he faced nine different Giants hitters at least five times and 13 hitters/pitchers total.
That group of 13 has a combined .341 batting average and .899 OPS versus Weaver. Some of those include terrific numbers from Brandon Belt (.556), Kris Bryant (.333), Evan Longoria (.500), Buster Posey (.400) and Mike Yastrzemski (.571).
Per statmuse, 10 of the last 14 RHP have gone Under 4.5 strikeouts against the Giants (71.4%) and Under 3.5 Ks in nine of the past 12 (75%).
Weaver had seven strikeouts against the Braves in his previous start but had four or fewer strikeouts in four straight games before that.
With that seven-K game versus Atlanta, Weaver still has 0.84 strikeouts per inning in September along with a 4.15 ERA and .235 OBA.
When Weaver goes 6.0 innings or less this season, he is 7-2 to the Under 4.5 strikeouts (78%), per NBC’s player prop model.
Weaver has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in seven out of 12 games this season and his numbers on the road and during the night do not strike as motivation.
During Weaver’s seven night starts in 2021, he owns a 5.55 ERA and .262 OBA. The Giants can have some fun with that as they try to lock up division.
I grabbed this at -165 odds because I thought we were getting a 3.5 today, so play it or parlay it.
Pick: Luke Weaver Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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