Austin Gomber O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Astros
Austin Gomber has come around in his recent starts, looking better and better in every one. He and the Rockies host the Houston Astros on Wednesday after winning 6-2 on Tuesday. While Gomber has been a hot ticket, this matchup does not bode well for the 27-year-old lefty.
Houston has six players that post an above-average or great whiff percentage and the majority of the Astros hitters do a good job of not chasing pitches outside the zone. Not to mention, Houston is one of the best teams in the league when facing a left-handed pitcher this season.
Only the Chicago White Sox (.303) have a better batting average than Houston against lefties (.301). Houston has struck out in 42-of-239 at-bats (17.5%) and earned 72 hits (30.1%, most), 43 runs (most), 39 RBIs (most) and 24 walks (10%).
The Astros rank top seven in OBP, SLG and OPS versus lefties on the second-most plate appearances (239), only trailing the Cleveland Indians (242). Houston’s 72 hits on lefties are the most in the league, in fact, the next closest team is the Boston Red Sox at 55.
Gomber is 0-2 on the season with a 3.52 ERA, allowing one, two, then three runs over his first three appearances. He has lasted 6.0 and 6.1 innings in his last two starts after going 3.0 in his season opener. [[ad:athena]]
Gomber’s 199 pitches in the last two games are impressive, but he has yet to face anyone outside the NL West this season. He has shown three pitches as his priority pitches, the 4-seamer fastball, slider and curveball, with the change-up as his fourth and least used.
Total Number of Pitches Thrown in 2020: 272
4-Seamer: 120
Slider: 63
Curveball: 57
Change-Up: 32
Gomber’s 4-seamer has come in at 91.7 MPH on average, ranked 285th, a very hittable number. He has also thrown the fastball 44.1% of the time and a combined 44.1% with the slider and curveball.
His change-up is becoming part of his arsenal, but that pitch is coming in at 82.8 MPH (198th) on average. His curveball is 75.2 MPH (188th) and the slider 86.1 MPH (252nd).
So, in theory, Houston is hitting very well against lefties with a majority of the Astros hitters at an above average swing percentage and Gomber has been successful but slow with his pitches.
NBC’s model projects Gomber at 3.5 strikeouts in 4.1 innings pitched. His 3.5 Ks is the lowest projected outcome from any pitcher today and his 4.1 innings pitcher is second-lowest. I did not have his projection before I started researching this prop, so I was excited to see he is not expected to do much versus Houston.
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I cannot forget to mention, Houston’s Jose Urquidy is still seeking his first win of the season and I can see a motivated Astros team today, getting behind him for his first victory. He is the only Astros starting pitcher to reach 100 pitches in a game so far this year, so I am sure he wants a win more than usual today.
Gomber has 14 Ks through three games and his last two going Over 4.5 strikeouts. Despite Gomber’s recent numbers looking like an Over and his impressive outing versus the Dodgers, he has not received much run support.
In his last start, he exited with a 5-3 lead against the Dodgers and the Rockies eventually lost the game 7-5. Yes, five runs, but that has all he has got this season.
In Gomber’s first two appearances, he received zero runs from the Rockies’ hitters. He allowed three himself, while the opponents scored five total. Those contests were against the Giants and Dodgers.
I do not see Gomber going 6.0 innings or deeper in this contest and I do not see him earning six or seven strikeouts versus this Astros squad. Five strikeouts maybe his ceiling here, but I like the chances he stays at four or less against the best left-handed hitting team in the league.
Take the Under on Gomber and if this becomes too juiced of a line, currently at -110, take the Under 15.5 Outs as an alternative bet.
Pick: Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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