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Casey Mize O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Royals
Run it back for +130 odds. We cashed Casey Mize Over 5.5 strikeouts versus the Mariners for +115 odds and now we get a lower total for better odds.
One of the main reasons why I backed Mize in the previous start was his ability to get better and keep his composure in each start versus an opponent he has already faced.
Well, that is very relevant now as this will be his fourth start against the Royals, the most against any team this season.
Here is how Mize and the Tigers have performed when he is on the mound against an opponent more than once.
White Sox Start 1: 6.0 IP - 87 P - 6 K - 4 H - 3 ER - 3 BB (Lost 3-1)
White Sox Start 2: 7.0 IP - 89 P - 6 K - 5 H - 3 ER - 0 BB (Lost 4-1)
Mariners Start 1: 7.2 IP - 95 P - 7 K - 3 H - 1 ER - 3 BB (Won 4-1)
Mariners Start 2: 6.0 IP - 99 P - 6 K - 4 H - 3 ER - 2 BB (Lost 9-6)
Royals Start 1: 4.2 IP - 85 P - 1 K - 7 H - 6 ER - 3 BB (Lost 6-2)
Royals Start 2: 6.0 IP - 96 P - 4 K - 3 H - 2 ER - 2 BB (Won 4-2)
Royals Start 3: 6.1 IP - 86 P - 6 K - 3 H - 1 ER - 1 BB (Lost 3-2)
Versus the White Sox and Royals, Mize had strong first outings and posted similar or better outings the second time around. Versus the Royals, his first start was rocky as he allowed all six runs in that outing.
In the next two starts versus Kansas City, Mize recorded 10 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. That is a 0.82 strikeout per inning average, right in line with his 0.84 season average. However, in Mize’s last five starts, his K per inning average has jumped to 1.00 with 32 Ks in 32 innings.
In May, Mize posted a 1.74 ERA with 27 strikeouts in 31.0 innings over five starts. In June, Mize has 12 Ks in 13.0 innings with a 4.15 ERA with three earned runs in each of his last two starts versus the White Sox and Mariners.
In the last three games that Mize allowed three or more earned runs, he recorded six strikeouts in all three -- as an FYI to the Over.
NBC’s model predicts Mize for 5.6 strikeouts in 6.1 innings, hitting the Over. Mize posted six strikeouts in his last meeting with Kansas City and lasted 6.0-plus innings in the previous two starts versus the Royals.
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Mize has recorded six or more strikeouts in his last five games and four or more in eight of the previous 10.
On the season, Mize has posted five or more Ks in 7-of-12 (58.3%) outings and had four strikeouts in three -- giving him 10 or more games with four strikeouts (83.3%).
The only two starts that he did not was his first meeting with the Royals and a trip to Fenway to face the Red Sox (understandable).
The Royals have one of the best strikeout percentages against right-handed pitchers at 22.5% (6th). However, they post a wRc+ of 89 (21st) and a walk rate of 8.1% (20th).
Over the last week, Kansas City has struck out 56 times, tied for the 11th-most of teams that played seven games. The Royals have played 14 games in 15 days, one of nine teams to do so.
Versus Mize, the Royals are hitting .140 with nine strikes and nine hits in 49 AB between nine primary hitters. If Michael Taylor, Hunter Dozier and Kelvin Gutierrez are in the lineup, I like Mize to strike all of them out once.
All three have combined for 11 AB versus Mize and only one hit to two strikeouts. Over the last week, Dozier and Taylor are hitting .120 and .143. Gutierrez has struck out seven times in his last 28 AB with no walks.
Whit Merrifield has struck out three times in eight AB with one hit versus Mize and Jorge Soler posts a similar line with two Ks in eight AB to one hit.
One guy worth noting that would be a substantial positive if struck out today is Carlos Santana. Santana has walked five times and struck out once in six AB with a .000 batting average versus Mize.
In the last meeting with the Royals, Mize struck out four hitters by the end of the third inning. He also recorded three ground-outs and two fly balls through the order.
Mize did not get his final two strikeouts until the sixth inning, but there is room for improvement there.
I will admit, this should be a sweat because Kansas City can be tough to strike out, but for +130 and five straight hits at Over 4.5 strikeouts -- I cannot pass the value and potential tonight.
Pick: Casey Mize Over 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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