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Lucas Giolito O/U 7.5 Strikeouts vs. Tigers
Back on my Tigers fade tour here! This could be a one-stop-shop, but the NBC model likes Lucas Giolito today, and I do as well.
The White Sox pitcher has recorded seven and nine strikeouts in both meetings with the Tigers this season, lasting a combined 13.2 innings.
Detroit has the league’s highest strikeout percentage versus right-handed pitchers at 27.1% and ranks 19th in wRC (89). Giolito averages 1.26 strikeouts per inning for the season and 1.22 since the start of May.
Versus the Tigers, his 1.21 Ks per inning this season is right on par with his season average. Giolito owns a 27.1% strikeout percentage in 118 total batters faced on Detroit.
NBC’s model predicts Giolito to post 8.6 strikeouts in 7.0 innings. Both are top two on the slate with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer -- elite company.
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Detroit has 47 strikeouts in the last five games to only 10 walks. They own the second-most Ks (626) and 25th-ranked batting average (.228) on the season.
Versus right-handed pitchers, Detroit owns the most strikeouts (451) in the eight-most at-bats (1496). They are still hitting .228 as well, so they are just striking out more versus right-handed pitchers.
Based on Giolito hitting seven and nine already this season versus Detroit, plus posting nine or more in three of his last four starts, this one seems like a solid bet to back.
Giolito’s 1.32 strikeouts per inning over his last four starts is nothing to ignore. Not to mention, Detroit beat Chicago in both starts as he allowed four earned runs in each meeting.
I am not sure if I can get behind Detroit beating Giolito’s White Sox three times in one season.
Plus, I heard the third time is a charm.
We could see his best outing versus Detroit here and during night starts, Giolito is pitching better with a .182 OBA, 2.97 ERA and 1.26 strikeouts per inning. All of those are his best besides his Ks per inning, which comes on his road starts (1.28), which this is as well.
Giolito should be motivated to get the win here, so I will back him for eight or more Ks, the median between his two starts. Take Giolito to earn the win if this prop goes beyond -150 odds.
Pick: Lucas Giolito Over 7.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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