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Cleaned up on the college diamond last week for the conference tournaments, AND crushed it down the shore. HELLO!
Now we have entered the Regional(s) round, which features a lot of great matchups. Obviously, I will be writing out my plays throughout the weekend, but overall, I felt like it could be helpful to spotlight teams to watch and teams to fade throughout not just this weekend, but the whole tournament. The watch party is up first.
TEAMS TO WATCH:
Texas A&M Aggies
In all fairness, I gave an ample amount of warning about this team over the last month or so. Whether it was via my twitter account, individual game breakdowns, or this future piece before the conference tournaments, you had the notice. As a matter of fact, I sent out a memo that the Aggies were +7000 on PointsBet to win it all on May 17th, which I dramatically pointed out was a gigantic mistake/misprint, and a couple days later it was down to +4000. Now, after their impressive showing in the SEC Tournament, they are a mere +2500.
Not looking to repeat myself in what I said of the above article, but to keep it short and sweet, TAMU has a ton of offensive stallions like Dylan Rock, Ryan Targac, Jack Moss and Austin Bost etc. With the firepower they have in the lineup, all they need is their pitching to meet them halfway. IF, and it’s a big if right now, that happens, then this team is a real threat. The Aggies need their ace, Nathan Dettmer, to return to his April dominance, and their two other starters, Micah Dallas and Ryan Prager, to just keep them in it. This is the big variance to watch for this weekend.
No. 5 TAMU is hosting the College Station Regional this weekend by squaring up against Oral Roberts. Assuming they mop them, which they should do, they could draw TCU. THAT would be a great matchup. Despite not seeing each other this season, these squads have a lot of familiarity and history with each other. Head coach Jim Schlossnaggle left TCU after last season, and the now coach for the Frogs, Kirk Saarloos was an assistant under Schlossnagle for a decade. While the Horned Frogs would be a worthy adversary, this is definitely a winnable bracket for A&M.
Oklahoma Sooners
Did not see that coming. How the Sooners have closed out in the second half of the year is like Rich Strike’s final charge in the Kentucky Derby. Oklahoma was pegged to finish only sixth in the Big 12 in the preseason, but tied for the second best record and won the conference this past weekend. Heading down the final weeks of the regular season, they snuck their way into the top 25, then closed out at No. 9 after the beating they threw Texas in the Big 12 Championship game.
What makes Oklahoma a good team? Great question. First off, they run, run, and run some more. Their 135 steals on the year (169 attempts) proved to be the fifth most in the country in 2022, and now is the most of any remaining team. Five of their players accrued at least 10 swiped bags. Next is the diversification of their lineup. There are seven players in this lineup that are hitting .280 or better (with at least 100 at-bats). Star OF John Spikerman (75 AB’s), only a couple months back from injury, is hitting .331, and proving to be a missing piece in this offense. Led by horses Peyton Graham (.339 avg, 16 taters, 30-32 in SB) and Tanner Tredaway (.359 avg, 23-27 in SB), this offense is one to fear. Pitching wise, they are spread a little thinner, but with starters like Jake Bennett and David Sandlin coming around over the last month, there is enough here for them to make a big push.
OU has become a team to watch, not just because they have a good mix of hitting and pitching, but because they are WHITE HOT. After a pedestrian start to the year of losing to the best teams, they turned a corner after that series against Oklahoma State. Since April 12th, the Sooners are 19-8, and have won series against TCU and Texas Tech. As the second seed in the Gainesville Regional, they will draw Liberty first. While it’s actually a tougher matchup than you may think, they should still be able to handle them. Should Oklahoma prove victorious, then in all likelihood they battle another hot team in Florida.
Miami Hurricanes
Similar situation to the Aggies where you can find my full thoughts in that piece above. Just because their ACC tourney struggles continued for like the 20th straight season, I’m not worried about it. Honestly though, I don’t think anybody is happier about the horrid NC State snubbing more than the Miami Hurricanes. If you watched that first game, you’ll understand what I’m talking about.
In case you forgot about Miami’s DNA, here is a quick refresher. They are essentially, to me at least, the Milwaukee Brewers of College Baseball. Unbelievable front to back pitching, which is likely at the very worst top five in the country, and good enough hitting. Despite some recent shakiness from their top starters Carson Palmquist and Karson Ligon, they should be heading for a rebound. So long as the pitching keeps things close, not only is their offense capable of scoring runs behind guys like Yohandy Morales, CJ Kayfus and Jacob Burke, but they have one of the best closers in the country in Andrew Walters at the ready.
The No.7 Canes have me a tad worried with how they have played lately, so maybe it’s a little bit more of hope on my part that this talented blue blood program can rediscover that midseason magic. Hosting their own Coral Gables Regional, Miami will square up against Canisius (29-23), a small school in Buffalo that won the MAAC in 2022. Regardless of that outcome, they will either see Arizona or Ole Miss on Day 2. Even though I don’t love either of those teams, I am not overlooking them. Still, Miami should be able to sneak through this round and into the Super Regionals.
Texas Longhorns
THE STARS AT NIGHT ARE BIG AND BRIGHT! That same tweet I mentioned TAMU on 5/17 also included this team. The Longhorns got absolutely mopped by Oklahoma on Sunday in the Big 12 Championship, but their play in the month of May has been exceptional. Since May 3rd, UT is 11-3, even if it has been against a few layups. Their recent hot stretch should carry into the month of June.
The Longhorns are and have been a fixture in college baseball for a very long time. The reason that happens, aside from coaching, mostly comes down to what players they are bringing in. Offensively, they have some thoroughbreds in the barn. We can’t mention taters without Big 12’s player of the year, Ivan Melendez, or who the team refers to as the “Hispanic Titanic.” Melendez’ 29 bombs this season led the country. Additionally Texas’ lineup has Murphy Stehly (.377 avg, 17 HR’s), Sky Messinger (.353 avg, 10 blasts) among a few others with tons of production.
With the way the Longhorns can score (483 runs- T-17th in NCAA), they can rely on a fabulous 1-2 pitching punch in Pete Hansen and Lucas Gordon. Hansen is one of the best in the nation this year, and is likely to hear his name be called in the early rounds of the MLB Draft should he leave school. Sophomore Gordon has also come on so strong down the stretch with four-straight quality starts since May 1st. The biggest question mark though becomes pitching depth. There are not many great options after these two throw. If it becomes Zane Morehouse or a bullpen game, then it becomes a scary thought.
After being the top seed in America for the first half of the year (until Tennessee knocked them off), Texas was the two seed for a little while. And then they fell off the map completely. However, sitting at No. 16 on D1 Baseball, they have worked their way back in. Now hosting the Austin Regional, the Longhorns draw one of the easiest brackets in the whole Regional round. They will see Air Force on the first day, then either Louisiana Tech or Dallas Baptist on the second. This should be a no doubter to see Texas in the Super Regionals next weekend.
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