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The preview of the series was dished out yesterday. Now it’s time to break down Game 1 of the Men’s College World Series Final between the Sooners of Oklahoma and the Rebels of Ole Miss. I really enjoyed covering college baseball this year and throughout the season my goal was to start getting more people engaged in it, especially from a betting standpoint. Aside from the excitement, there is so much money and opportunity to be had. We still have at least two more games to go, so without further ado, here we go.
Quick piece of advice for any type of bets for college baseball, SHOP AROUND. A lot of different books are hanging mispriced numbers, so you can take advantage of them.
*Each play will be labeled (1 through number “X”) to determine how I rank my plays on a daily basis.
Ole Miss Rebels (+125) @ Oklahoma Sooners (-145) | Over/Under 10.5 (1/2)
*Inserts the “that escalated quickly” gif from Anchorman. The line originally opened up at about a pick’em on Thursday night, with Ole Miss regarded as an ever-so-slight favorite. On Friday though, the line got absolutely nuked with Oklahoma drawing more money than the US Treasury. Why would that be? Rebs Head Coach, Mike Bianco, announced his starting pitcher for Game 1, which to me is a risky strategy. Once it was known that sophomore Jack Dougherty would get the ball, who has not started a game since March 26th against the Tennessee Volunteers, everybody and their mother hammered Oklahoma. With streaking southpaw ace Jake Bennett on the other side, who has the edge?
I’ll admit, I am not a fan at all of all this action on OU. Sometimes it doesn’t end up meaning anything and sometimes it does. Bennett has been mostly marvelous over his last seven appearances (40.1 IP) with six wins and a save against Florida in the regionals. He has allowed only 14 earned runs and seven walks, while amassing 43 punchies, while logging at least six innings in five of his last six starts. Facing a Rebels lineup that is 20+ points worse against lefties than righties this season, I like this matchup for Bennett and the Sooners. If he can continue to dot that mid to high 90’s fastball and work in that devastating slide piece to an Ole Miss offense that has seen some of their big hitters slump in the CWS, he could force them to have their third-straight subpar outing on the scoreboard (four runs the past two games). Offensively, it’s the same story, get on base. The 145 stolen bases for the Sooners is fourth most in the NCAA, and in addition to how well they have been operating on the base paths, it could apply tremendous pressure to the opposing pitching and defense. Their thoroughbreds like Peyton Graham (.344 avg, 20 HR’s, 34 SB), Tanner Treadway (.379 avg, 24 SB) and Jimmy Crooks (.311 avg, 9 HR’s, 10 SB), among others, need to continue their recent hot streak to keep that pressure on. One thing I would like to see this lineup clean up, despite scoring 80 runs in 10 postseason games, is the 16 ducks they left on the pond in their last two contests.
I almost couldn’t believe Bianco decided to hold off on throwing freshman lefty Hunter Elliott today. Given how big this first game is in terms of the ripple effect on pitching, giving the ball to Dougherty is a huge decision. For all the early season struggles Dougherty has had, he has cleaned it up as a reliever. Having yet to allow a run since May, the sophomore has definitely looked more reliable as of late. Even with a rested bullpen, the key for him is to log at least four innings – something he has not done since March 19th vs. Auburn – and not allow more than one run. Given the struggles of bats like Tim Elko (3-16 with 1 HR and 3 RBI’s in CWS), Jacob Gonzalez (3-18 with 0 HR and 1 RBI in CWS) and Peyton Chatagnier (2-13 with 0 HR and RBI in CWS) lately, it could be a huge swing for Ole Miss if this is nothing more than a two-run deficit heading into the fifth or sixth inning. Although they had the absolute easiest path they could have asked for to make it to this stage, you still cannot count out an extremely resilient Ole Miss squad that was No. 1 in the country at one point this year.
When I went on Battle of the Bets yesterday, I plugged in my plays at a then pick’em price with the Total sitting at 12. Obviously, that’s all gone now. Despite a ton of action on Oklahoma, I can’t back out on my darkhorse now. Given the advantage they have on the mound, I think Bennett dazzles for seven innings of two-run ball with lock down closer Trevin Michael coming in to slam the door shut in a monumental Game 1.
FYI: I grabbed OU at -110 in the UNDER 12, but I would still play them up to -145. The under 10.5 is still a bit risky, but worth a sprinkle.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma ML (-110)
PREDICTION: Under 12 (-115)
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Enjoy the taste, kid
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